From an actual Wall Street “research” report this morning—and, before you ask, no, this is not from “The Onion”:
We are upgrading 3M to Neutral as capitulation on the growth story and 2011 estimates should limit relative downside and make 3M once again somewhat of a defensive stock. While the negative dynamic of positive sentiment has turned modestly more favorable, stubbornly bullish consensus estimates for ’12, along with risks at Healthcare, keep us from moving to Overweight.
Anyone care to venture what this means?
Jeff Matthews
I Am Not Making This Up
© 2011 NotMakingThisUp, LLC
The content contained in this blog represents only the opinions of Mr. Matthews. Mr. Matthews also acts as an advisor and clients advised by Mr. Matthews may hold either long or short positions in securities of various companies discussed in the blog based upon Mr. Matthews’ recommendations. This commentary in no way constitutes investment advice, and should never be relied on in making an investment decision, ever. Also, this blog is not a solicitation of business by Mr. Matthews: all inquiries will be ignored. The content herein is intended solely for the entertainment of the reader, and the author.
14 replies on “Say What?”
I think it's an anagram.
It means his boss finally got tired of being yelled at about the 'wrong way' call on 3M because no one would trade 3M on their desk anymore.
sure – it means we have no idea what to say about this so we shall obfuscate in the manner of the current and former head of fed!
Anagram? — Perhaps.
But more likely a paradox.
Or what about a oxymoron (emphasis on the "moron")?
I think it means that he got "Magnetic Poetry, Financial Analyst Edition" for Christmas.
Am I the only one who sees at least what the analyst meant to say? That because the market is now more pessimistic on the company's earnings prospects it will be easier to perform well relative to expectations. They have terrible diction, to be sure.
The same as this one I keep posted on my computer – "We would summarize our current market stance as one of reduced risk, looking for additional consolidation, but not yet possessing identification of significant reward."
-Saloman Smith Barney's Market Interpretations
I'm pretty sure I can write a program that creates analyst reports like this. Maybe that's a business opportunity?
Not sure what it says, but what it proves is that forecasting market sentiment and 12-month price targets are a fool's game
Apparently he learned from Alan Greenspan how to write stock recommendations?
I am very surprised that you don't know what this analyst is saying. It is quite obvious to me:
1. I had a sell on the stock because I thought the stock would fall once investors realized this was not a growth story;
2. Investors seem to have decided this is a growth story, so I no longer think the stock will fall;
3. As a contrarian, I thought investor interest in a supposed growth story provided a favorable environment for shorting it;
4. I thought for sure that because the economy was so bad that this company would have a hard time growing revenues and earnings per share, and I didn’t pay any attention to the ridiculous guidance that management was providing or the estimates that other analysts were making.
5. After all, the economy has been terrible and there is still 10% unemployment, and people are surely being more cautious about what they buy;
6. Anyway, after having a short on this for so long, I now am confronted with 2011 estimates which show fundamentals remain intact;
7. Estimates are bullish and investors actually like MMM as a defensive stock in a slow economy;
8. Because everyone else was right and I have been so wrong, there is no reason to believe I will ever be right, so I don’t think the stock will fall;
9. But then, I have been wrong all along;
10. I am an idiot.
11. I have no idea what I am doing.
12. I was so sure this company was going to puke its earnings from quarter to quarter, but I have been wrong time and time again.
13. So, now I am capitulating because my buy side clients are fed up with me and I can’t take it anymore.
Sign me,
Forgive the sarcasm
I think most of these reports nowadays are written by the interns or the 23 year olds fresh out of business school.
The funny thing is, this analyst shouldn't be embarrassed about his call on MMM. He had it overweight for years, then downgraded to neutral in early 2010, and then downgraded to underperform on August 17. Since August 17 MMM is up ~4% while the market is up ~17%. It was a nice call and he should say he's taking profits or something like that. Perhaps our friends amongst Wall Street's Finest neeed some remedial writing lessons
I think this analyst is heading straight to academia, where obfuscation is a highly prized attribute.