Categories
Uncategorized

If Donald Trump Ran a Publicly Traded Restaurant Chain The CEO Might Sound Like This

  You’d be forgiven if, after hearing the CEO of Chipotle describe its first ShopHouse Asian Kitchen restaurant concept
that was opened in DuPont Circle a few years ago, you agreed with the cohort of Wall Street’s finest that declared ShopHouse might become the next leg of growth for the then-plenty-fast-growing-already
purveyor of burritos and tacos 
“With Integrity.”
  You’d be forgiven because the CEO of
Chipotle repeatedly—and by that, we mean more than a dozen times over the next
few years—promoted the concept and often compared that first ShopHouse restaurant with the early days of
Chipotle itself.
   In fact, so forcefully and frequently did the CEO push the ShopHouse-as-the-Next-Chipotle theme over the years, the more cynical among our readers would be forgiven for reading the following time-line of quotes from the Chipotle CEO and asking themselves, “Wait a minute, does Donald Trump run Chipotle on the side?”
   Indeed, the Trump analogy does not end there, for just today Nation’s Restaurant
News broke the story that Chipotle is in fact closing all 15 ShopHouse restaurants.
  But not to worry, for the same CEO who has persistently and persuasively told us that all is well with the
Chipotle business lately is the one who told us the following about ShopHouse…
10/20/11  “Some
customers have commented that it’s a bit too spicy which is exactly what I
heard when I opened the very first Chipotle 18 years ago….  What I love is
that these customers tell me that it might be too spicy, while they devour
every bite of their meal.”
1/11/12  “And
it’s doing great, there’s a line out the door every day for lunch and dinner…so
we are about to start construction on our second one.
 …But again, this is just sort of laying the
groundwork for future expansion possibilities.”
 2/1/12  “While
we’re still working to perfect the concept, it reminds me very much of the
first Chipotle when it originally opened.”
 3/7/12  “It’s
going really, really well.   … So you can imagine the potential now that
is [sic] not just limited to burritos and tacos.   So we’re very excited about
it.”
 4/19/12  “But
it really was designed to be kind of the same, the same thing as Chipotle.
 … So any kind of cuisine can fit into this model.   So I think we’re
very bullish that when and if the time comes that we want to accelerate this,
we can do that.”  
“And
I think that it’s fair to say that the sales are very similar to the Chipotle
that’s across the street.   In fact, I would say that the unit economic
model in general is substantially similar to that of Chipotle in general.”
 6/5/12  “The
only difference between ShopHouse and Chipotle is the cuisine.  
Everything else is the same, the investment cost, the economic model, the
service format, the price point, the size of the location.”
 6/14/12  “…it’s
going very, very well.”
 1/17/13  “The
first ShopHouse opened about a year and a half ago and it reminds me a lot of
when I opened the first Chipotle.   Customers have really taken to it from
day one…”
 2/5/13  “Shophouse
in Washington DC continues to perform well and reminds me very much of the
first Chipotle when I opened it almost 20 years ago.”
 3/5/13  “And
what’s really exciting is that we’re proving that this is not just a model for
burritos and tacos, but for other types of cuisines as well…
    ShopHouse continues to perform well and
reminds me a lot of the very first Chipotle when I opened it 20 years ago.”
 5/9/13  “And
it’s doing really well. …. in so many ways it’s exactly the same as Chipotle.”
 7/18/13  “Shophouse
is continuing to show us that there is significant potential for our business
beyond burritos and tacos and we are really encouraged by its potential.”
 10/17/13  “Our
growth at ShopHouse is much faster than Chipotle was in the early days.”
 1/30/14  “ShopHouse
continues to remind me of Chipotle in its earliest days.”
 4/29/14  “ShopHouse
is the Southeast Asian version of Chipotle, it’s the same sort of operating
platform…   And it’s going very, very well…”
 5/28/14  “Well
we’re certainly growing these concepts faster than Chipotle initially grew.”
 10/20/14  “Shophouse
very much reminds me of Chipotle when I opened the first one of the
restaurants.”
  3/9/17  Chipotle Mexican Grill Inc. is
closing all 15 ShopHouse Asian Kitchen chain next week, the company confirmed
to Nation’s Restaurant News on Thursday.  
Chris Arnold, a spokesman for the
Denver-based company, said that the company has a deal to sell the leases for
the ShopHouse locations and plans to close the restaurants effective March 17.  
“We now have a deal in place to
sell the ShopHouse leases and believe that is the right decision at this time,”
Arnold said in an email to Nation’s Restaurant News
.

###
Categories
Uncategorized

Shazam! From The Boss to The King to John & Paul (but not George or Ringo), Not to Mention Jessica & Nick

2016 Editor’s Note:
  The switch to all-holiday music has started, and while we have not heard much new, it has, so far, been mercifully light on the Michael Bublé and wonderfully heavy on the Chrissie Hynde and Bing Crosby, although with no sign of The Boss, yet.
  Our beef this year is not with the current roll of holiday songs, or with any of the rock biographies weve been reading (Dee-Dee Ramone“Lobotomy: Surviving the Ramones, is even more hair-raising than Chrissie Hyndes book that we called out last year, and that takes some doing); our beef is with the SongFacts web site, which, as readers of this virtual column might imagine, ranks right up there with Bloomberg, FactSet and the Wall Street Journal as tools of our trade.
  Specifically, how does SongFacts not know that at 4 minutes 51 seconds into the Beatles “A Day in the Life, one of the chairs the four Beatles are sitting on as they keep the extended final chord going on the two pianos at the Abbey Road studio emits an audible squeak, and a voice (we’ve always guessed Paul) says Shhh!?
  This is surely more important than the fact that the song was ranked as the Beatles’ best by some random compilation, or that noted musician, singer, and drug-abuser David Crosby was supposedly in the studio for the very first playback.   (After all, he could have actually been in Brazil that day and not remembered.) 
   Of course, to hear the most famous squeak/shush in recorded history, the volume has to be turned up extremely loud, i.e. well beyond what most listeners would ever have their iPhone or stereo or radio cranked up to.   
   In fact, you have to go to 11.
   But thats what its all about, right?


Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah and a Good New Year to All!

—JM, December 3, 2016



2015 Editor’s Note:

 We have not heard much new in the way of holiday music, so let’s turn straight to the rock and roll biography scene—specifically Chrissie Hyndes’ autobiography, “Reckless: My Life as a Pretender,” which is like witnessing a car wreck in book form.
 While there’s plenty here that’s harmless and bland (early days in Ohio, e.g.), there’s plenty that makes you want to put the book away in a very dark place, and all you can think is, How was she not part of “That stupid club,” as Kurt Cobain’s mother called it?  (Look it up, kids.) 
  Similarly depressing are some movies we’ve been watching on Netflix—starting with the Levon Helms biography, “Ain’t In It for My Health,” which minces no words when it comes to his former bandmate and nemesis, the Canadian songwriter Robbie Robertson, who squeezed out of Levon (the only American in The Band) vibrant scenes of Americana (“The Weight,” and especially, “The Night They Drove Old Dixie Down”) without sharing the royalties.
  Even more depressing than the Hynes book and the Helms movie combined, however, is the Glenn Campbell-gets-diagnosed-with-Alzheimers-while-you-watch film, “I’ll Be Me.”  Your editor saw Campbell perform at a Wall Street birthday bash circa 1997, and he was clearly miserable throughout: flushed faced and word-slurring, Campbell and his band blew through his greatest hits like Bob Dylan on a bad day, and, embarrassingly to everybody in the room, kept calling the host—whose name was Paul and who, when introducing the singer, nearly broke down while talking about how much it meant having him perform—“Pete.”
 But “I’ll Be Me” does a great job highlighting Campbell’s background as a highly valued session musician…and if you’re interested in knowing more about that era, you ought to watch “The Wrecking Crew,” our last movie shout-out.
 “The Wrecking Crew” was the name of the L.A. session players behind The Byrds, The Beach Boys and classics like “I Got You, Babe”—just listen to Hal Blaine’s slamming drums on the outro—and the movie is a joyous look at the faces behind the instruments behind the songs.  Glen Campbell was a supremely talented guitarist for the Wrecking Crew before he decided—to the initial amusement and later jealousy of some of the Crew—go for the gold himself.
 Suggestions on other movies (and books) are encouraged in the comments below…after all, your editor hasn’t finished compiling his Christmas list, if you get our drift…
Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah and a Good New Year to All!
—JM, December 3, 2015
2014 Editor’s Note:
 Well, Michael Bublé’s computer is still releasing holiday songs, which is the worst we can say about this year’s holiday music survey.  The best we can say—and it is truly good news—is that The Boss’s hard-driving, live version of “Santa Claus is Comin’ to Town,” done entirely without computer-aided Bublé-style vocals, seems to be gaining much deserved traction.  
 Meanwhile, one of our previous also-ran mentions in the What-Did-We-Do-To-Deserve-This? category, one Taylor Swift, deserves a big boo-yah for telling the Spotify algorithms to stuff it, pulling her entire catalogue from the automated listening service—including, by definition, the song mentioned here last year, which should be no tragedy to Spotify customers anyhow.
 As for our usual review of the latest rock memoirs, which tend to flood the bookshelves right about now—only to turn up in the mark-down bins come spring, which is when your editor actually buys them—the best read during brief trips to our local, increasingly down-on-its-heals Barnes & Noble, has to be Mick Fleetwood’s “Play On.”
 Fleetwood is one of the most underrated drummers in rock music, being the kind who drives the beat without histrionics and stays well behind the kit while the front-people do their thing (it was Fleetwood and fellow Mac bassist John McVie who rescued “Werewolves of London” for Warren Zevon and producer Jackson Browne, after the house band could not make the song work) so his remembrances of the formation of Fleetwood Mac are insightful and compelling even for those—including your editor—who were never big Fleetwood Mac fans.
 Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah and a Good New Year to all!
—JM, December 19, 2014
2013 Editor’s Note:  The most unnerving aspect to this year’s holiday music survey is the unavoidable, near-totalitarian presence of an insipid cover version of George Michael’s already-plenty-insipid-for-our-taste-thank-you-very-much “Last Christmas,” which, as we point out below has one of the most inane choruses ever written (no mean feat there), which wouldn’t be so bad except it is repeated over and over and over until you want to hand yourself over to Vladimir Putin’s security forces and let them do their worst.  
 The perpetrator of this latest holiday music outrage is, it turns out, Taylor Swift, about whom your editor knows nothing except she adds exceedingly little to a song that needed plenty of help to begin with.
 But, as always with these annual surveys, your editor digresses.
 On the happier side of the music world, this last year has seen a number of excellent new rock memoirs, of which Kinks front-man and songwriting genius Ray Davies’ is the most interesting.
 The centerpiece of the story line in Ray’s “Americana” is his getting shot by a mugger in New Orleans some years back, but interspersing that tale he manages to tell much of the story of his career.  
 If you want to read how Ray came up with classics like “Better Things” (why couldn’t that be a Christmas song?   It’s as much about the holidays as “Same Old Lang Syne,” about which your editor has plenty to say later on), this is your book.
 Neil Young’s “Waging Heavy Peace,” which came out last year, is even better than “Americana,” however, and more fun to keep picking up when the mood strikes: Neil’s recollections are loopy, digressive, and admittedly unsure in some cases (at one point he compares his memory of a drug bust with Stephen Stills’ recollection of the same drug bust—and given that Neil only stopped “smoking weed” the year before writing the book, as he admits, it’s no wonder their recollections are very different), but like all things Neil Young, he says what he means and means what he says.  
 And if you’re wondering where songs come from—great songs, eternal songs—Neil’s book is the place to begin.  
 Would that a holiday song may one day spring from the fecund mind of Neil Young himself, for while he professes more of a Native American religious spirit than a Judeo-Christian one, either way, it would be so long Taylor Swift.
 Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah and a Good New Year to all!
—JM, December 7, 2013
2012 Editor’s Note: We interrupt this holiday music review to bring you a potential stocking-stuffer that ought to bring tidings of good cheer…  
 2011 Editor’s Note: Back by popular demand, we’ll again try to keep this year’s update brief…but past performance would tell you not to hold your breath.  Here goes.
 Our annual holiday music survey—highly biased, rankly unscientific and in no way comprehensive—covers new ground this year, to wit: the SiriusXM all-holiday-music channel.
 Actually, there are two such channels courtesy of the satellite radio monopolists at SiriusXM.  There’s one for “traditional” music of the Bing Crosby kind, in which human beings sing traditional Christmas songs while other human beings play musical instruments to accompany those songs; and there’s another channel for everything else, including the Auto-Tune-dependent sensation Michael Bublé, who has only gotten more popular—unfortunately—this year, along with a new presence not entirely unexpected but nonetheless frightening in its implications: Justin Bieber.
 Enough said about that, for our main beef with SiriusXM is not the presence of yet another teen idol on the holiday music scene.
 Our beef lies with the soul-less quality of the entire SiriusXM gestalt, which requires its three thousand channels to carry songs strictly on the basis of whether they share either a common date of issue (as on the “40’s at 4,” “50’s at 5,” “60’s at 6” et al channels), or a common target audience demographic.
 Among the later, for example is the “Classic Vinyl” channel, which is essentially a “Classic Rock” channel (“Classic Rock” being a Baby Boomer euphemism for what our parents knew as “Oldies” radio) that plays the WNEW-FM playlist from around 1968 to 1978. And nothing else.
 And there is the “Classic Rewind” channel, which is another Oldies channel that plays the WPLR-FM playlist from about 1979 to the late 1980s. And nothing else.
 Then there’s “The Bridge,” a Baby Boomer euphemism for “Easy Listening.”  It plays Oldies of the James Taylor/Carole King/Jackson Browne vein.
 And nothing else.
 Certainly there are one or two such channels that manage to jump around between genres (The Spectrum is worthwhile on that score).  But, in the main, each SiriusXM channel is tightly focused on a specific, narrowly defined demographic…sometimes scarily so.
  Here we’re thinking of the “Metal” channel, which plays loosely defined “songs” that consist of young men screaming their apocalyptic guts out above what appears to be a single, head-banging, machine-gun-style guitar-and-drumming musical track that never, ever changes.
  You marvel at where these guys came from, what portion of the domestic methamphetamine supply they consume, and how many serial killers might be listening to “Metal” channel at the very same moment as you.  
 If Beavis and Butt-Head could afford a car, this would be their channel.
 Unfortunately, no matter which channel you pick and who the purported “DJ” may be (there are a lot of old-time, smokey-voiced, recognizable DJs on the various Sirius Oldies channels) you’ll hear a sequence of songs that all sound like a computerized random-number-generator picked ‘em.
 Listening to the “60’s at 6” channel, for example, you may hear a great Beatles single like “Hello, Goodbye” from 1967, followed by the wretchedly excessive “MacAurther Park” from 1968, followed by an unrecognizable chart-topper from 1962 that nobody plays anymore because it wasn’t any good even in 1962.
 The listener ends up flipping around from channel to channel and wondering why the bandwidth-happy SiriusXM monopolists don’t just give each artist its own channel, as they in fact do for Springsteen, Elvis and Sinatra.  Those are channels you might expect to find, but there is, oddly enough, no Bob Marley or Rolling Stones channel—and, head-scratcher of all head-scratchers, no Beatles channel.
 In fact, the absence of The Beatles from the SiriusXM digital bandwidth relative to, say, the Eagles and Fleetwood Mac, is one the great mysteries of our age.
 After all, the Beatles individually and collectively contributed 27of the Rolling Stone Top 500 Songs of All-Time or 5.4% of those songs, yet they get nowhere near 5.4% of the SiriusXM airplay, whether on “Classic Vinyl,” “Classic Rewind,” “The Bridge,” “60’s on 6, ” “70’s on 7,” “The Spectrum” or any of the other three thousand channels here.
 You quite literally have as much chance of hearing “Snoopy and the Red Barron” on SiriusXM as “Revolution.”
 So why then is there a Jimmy Buffett channel (called “Margaritaville,” of course)?
 Having gotten all that off our chest, we can move on, since SiriusXM’s holiday channels add no new material to our annual survey because most of the songs are widely played everywhere else.
 Furthermore, we’ve been asked to assemble a “Top Ten Worst” list of holiday songs for this review.  The problem is there are just so many, as we’ll be getting to shortly.  Rod Stewart’s somnambulant “My Favorite Things,” which sounds like he’s reading the lyrics from a child’s book of verses, is right up there, while Dan Fogelberg’s “Same Old Lang Syne” stands out in any crowd of non-favorites.
 Easier, then, to simply identify the All-Time, Number One, No-Question-About-It NotMakingThisUp Worst Holiday Song of All Time, and let everyone else argue about the remaining 9.
 It is “The 12 Pains of Christmas.”
 This so-called comedy song takeoff on “The 12 Days of Christmas,” a pleasant English Christmas carol discovered by a U.S. schoolteacher from Milwaukee and used by her in a Christmas pageant in 1910, is an easily forgettable humorous novelty song that is neither novel or humorous, in any way.
 It isn’t even fun writing about, so we won’t bother: we’ll simply move on to something pleasant, which happens to be an entirely different sort of humorous novelty song that is both novel and humorous, and, therefore, well worth a mention here.
 We’re talking about the wonderfully bizarre, catchy, Klezmer-style cover of  “Must Be Santa,” from Bob Dylan’s 2009 Christmas album, “Christmas in the Heart.”  (Yes, Bob Dylan made a Christmas album.)
 The music is fast and cheerful, and Dylan’s low, growly voice is almost indistinguishable from Tom Waits.  (The truly bizarre music video is not to be missed, watch it here.)  After you get over the initial shock of hearing Bob Dylan singing what most Baby Boomer parents will recall being a Raffi song, it becomes impossible to not enjoy.
 Another glaring absence from our previous years’ commentary is neither novel or humorous, and inconceivably does not appear to qualify for the SiriusXM random-song-generator holiday song playlist despite being many-times more worthwhile than most of the SiriusXM catalogue, whether holiday-themed or not.
 The song is “2000 Miles” by the Pretenders, and it belongs on anybody’s Holiday Top Ten.
 If hearing Chrissie Hynde on that original song (she’s also recorded some good Christmas covers, including one with the Blind Boys of Alabama) doesn’t get you in a mellow holiday mood, nothing will.
 
Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah and Good New Year to all.
—JM, December 4, 2011 
 2010 Editor’s Note: Back for the third consecutive year by popular demand, we’ll try to keep this year’s update brief—but don’t count on it.
 For starters, we’re going to plug a book: Keith Richards’ autobiography, “Life,” which happens to be one of the best books ever written—and we don’t just mean “Best in the Category of ‘Memoirs by Nearly-Dead Rock Stars’.”
 It is a great book, period.
 The story of how ‘Keef’ (as he signs sweet letters to his Mum while rampaging across America), Brian and Mick developed the Rolling Stones’ sound, for example, is worth the price alone (in short, they worked really hard; but the full story is much better than that).
 Yet there’s more—much more. Guitarists can soak up how Keith created his own guitar sound; drummers will learn—if they didn’t already know—Charlie Watts’ high-hat trick (and from whom he stole it); while songwriters had better prepare themselves to be depressed at how Mick wrote songs (‘As fast as his hand could write the words, he wrote the lyrics,’ according to one session man who watched him write “Brown Sugar”).
 And that’s just the rock-and-roll stuff.
 The sex-and-drugs stuff is also there, and the author lays it all out in his unfettered, matter-of-fact, straightforward style, often with the first-person help of friends and others-who-where-there (and presumably of sounder mind and body than you-know-who: the drug and alcohol intake is truly staggering) who write of their own experiences with the band.
 Okay, you may say, but how exactly is Keith Richards’ autobiography relevant to our annual review of holiday songs?
 Well, while furtively reading snatches of ‘Life’ during a stop at the local Borders (we expect to see the book under the Christmas tree sometime around the 25th of this month, hint-hint), we happened to hear another musical legend perform one of our favorite offbeat Christmas songs in the background, and it occurred to your Editor that of all the bands out there that could have done that same kind of interesting, worthwhile Christmas song, The Rolling Stones probably top the list.
 What with Keef’s bluesy undertones and Mick’s commercial-but-sinister instincts on top, it would have certainly made this review, for better or worse. (Along these lines, The Kinks’ cynical, working-class “Father Christmas” is one of the all-time greats, and doesn’t get nearly enough air-time these days.)
 Now, for the record, the offbeat Christmas song that triggered this excursion was “’Zat You Santa Claus?”—the Louis Armstrong and The Commanders version from the 1950’s. (The song was later covered, like everything else but the Raffi catalogue, by Harry Connick, Jr.)
 Starting out with jingle bells, blowing winds and a slide-whistle, you might initially dismiss “’Zat You?” as a sadly commercial attempt by Armstrong to get in on the Christmas song thing, except that his familiar, Mack-the-Knife-style vocal comes over a terrific backbeat that turns it into what we’d nominate for Funkiest Christmas Song Ever Recorded.
 It is a delight to hear, and the fact that it is suddenly getting more air-time this season is a step-up in quality for the entire category—or would be, if not for the apparent installation of Wham!’s “Last Christmas” in the pantheon of Christmas Classics.
 A 1980’s electro-synth Brit-Pop timepiece, “Last Christmas” combines a somewhat catchy tune with lyrics that make a trapped listener attempt to open the car door even at high speeds to get away:
Last Christmas, I gave you my heart

But the very next day you gave it away

This year

To save me from tears,

I gave it to someone special
 Considering the fact that the songwriter (Wham!’s gay front-man, George Michael) decided to repeat that chorus six times, the full banality of the lyric eventually gives way to incredulity: “Let me get this straight,” you begin to ask yourself. “This year he’s giving his heart to ‘someone special’… so who’d he give it to last year? The mailman?”


 “Last Christmas” does have the distinction of being the biggest selling single in UK history that never made it to Number 1. Furthermore, all royalties from the single were donated to Ethiopian famine relief, the same cause which led to creation of what turned out to be the actual Number 1 UK single that year, “Do They Know It’s Christmas?”


 “Do They Know…” is a song that has received some push from readers to receive an honorable mention in these pages, and while it is certainly an interesting timepiece, with much earnest participation from the likes of Sting, Bono and even Sir Paul, it is not nearly as worthwhile as an album that seems just as prevalent these days: A Charlie Brown Christmas by jazz pianist Vince Guaraldi.


 How a jazz pianist was hired to create the music for a TV special with cartoon characters is this: the producer heard Guaraldi’s classic instrumental “Cast Your Fate to the Wind” on the radio while taking a cab across the Golden Gate Bridge.
 One thing led to another, and thanks to that odd bit of chance, future generations will have the immense pleasure of hearing a timeless, unique work of art every year around this time. (A second odd tidbit for our West Coast readers: Guaraldi died while staying at the Red Cottage Inn, in Menlo Park—of a heart attack, however, and not the usual, more gruesome fate of musicians who die in hotels.)
 One second-to-last note before we move on: we have been heavily lobbied by certain, er, close relations to include Mariah Carey’s “All I Want For Christmas is You” as a worthwhile holiday song—despite our previously expressed misgivings about her contribution to the genre (see below).


 And we have to admit, her “All I Want…” leaves behind the incessant vocal pyrotechnics that made some of her other Christmas covers (“Oh Holy Night,” for example) unbearable, at least to our ears.
 In this case she seems to trust the song to take care of itself, which it does in fine, driving, upbeat style. Now, as Your Editor previously hinted, all he wants for Christmas is Keef’s book. And it had better be there, if, as previously noted, you get our drift.
 Finally, and speaking of autobiographies, we happened to read Andy Williams’ own book this past year and must report that our reference to Williams below was overly harsh. For one thing, his book is as honest as Keef’s; for another, as a singer not necessarily born with the vocal equipment of, say, Mariah Carey, the man worked at his craft and succeeded mightily where many others failed.
 Which, we might add, is, after all, the hope of this season.

And so, we wish for a Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah and Good New Year to all.
JM, December 13, 2010



2009 Editor’s Note: 
Back by popular demand, what follows is our year-end sampling of the Christmas songs playing incessantly on a radio station near you, and it demands from your editor only a few updates this holiday season.
 For starters, we have not heard the dreaded duet of Jessica Simpson and Nick Lachey singing “Baby, It’s Cold Outside” thus far in 2009, and for this we are most grateful.
 Indeed, if it turns out that their recording has been confiscated by Government Authorities for use as an alternative to lethal injections, we’ll consider ourselves a positive force for society.
 On the other hand, we are sorry to report an offset to that cheery development, in the form of a surge in playing time for Barry Manilow’s chirpy imitation of the classic Bing Crosby/Andrew Sisters version of “Jingle Bells.”
 For the record, “Jingle Bells” was written in 1857…for Thanksgiving, not for Christmas. And it’s hard to imagine making a better version than that recorded by Bing and the three Andrew Sisters 86 years later.
 But Manilow, it seems, didn’t bother to try.

 Instead, Barry and his back-up group, called Expos, simply copied Bing’s recording, right down to that stutter in the Andrews Sisters’ unique, roller-coaster vocals on the choruses, as well as Bing’s breezy, improvised, “oh we’re gonna have a lotta fun” throwaway line on the last chorus.
 Sharp-eared readers might say, “Well, so what else would you expect from a guy who sang ‘I Write the Songs’…which was in fact written by somebody else?”


 We can’t argue with that, but we will point out another annoyance this year: the enlarged presence of Rod Stewart in the Christmas play-lists.
 Don’t get us wrong: we like Rod Stewart—at least, the Rod Stewart who gave the world what Your Editor still considers the best coming-of-age song ever written and recorded: “Every Picture Tells a Story.”
 It’s the Rod Stewart who gave us “Do Ya Think I’m Sexy?” we’re less crazy about.  So too the Rod who chose to cover “My Favorite Things” (for the definitive version of that classic, see: ‘Bennett, Tony’) and “Baby It’s Cold Outside” with Dolly Parton (for an only slightly more offensive version of this one, see: ‘Simpson, Jessica’ and ‘Lachey, Nick’).
 As an antidote to Rod, we suggest several doses of Jack Johnson’s sly, understated “Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer,” which seems to be gaining recognition, and anything by James Taylor—especially his darkly melancholic “Have Yourself a Merry Little Christmas.”
 Of all the singers who recorded versions of this last—and Sinatra’s might be the best—it is Taylor, a former junkie, who probably expresses more of the intended spirit of this disarmingly titled song.
 After all, the original lyric ended not with the upbeat “Have yourself a merry little Christmas, let your heart be light/Next year all our troubles will be out of sight,” but with this:


 “Have yourself a merry little Christmas, it may be your last/Next year we may all be living in the past.”


 No, we are not making that up.  The good news is it should keep Barry Manilow from be covering it any time soon.


JM—December 19, 2009



Wednesday, December 24, 2008


Shazam! From the Boss to the King to John & Paul (But Not George or Ringo), Not to Mention Jessica & Nick
 Like everyone else out there, we’ve been hearing Christmas songs since the day our local radio station switched to holiday music sometime around, oh, July 4th, it feels like.
 And while it may just be a symptom of our own aging, the 24/7 holiday music programming appears to have stretched the song quality pool from what once seemed Olympic-deep to, nowadays, more of a wading pool-depth.
 What we recall in our youth to be a handful of mostly good, listenable songs—Nat King Cole’s incomparable cover of “The Christmas Song” (written by an insufferable bore: more on that later); Bing’s mellow, smoky, “White Christmas”; and even Brenda Lee’s country-tinged “Rockin’ Around the Christmas Tree” (recorded when she was 13: try to get your mind around that)—played over and over a few days a year…has evolved into a thousand mediocre-at-best covers played non-stop for months on end.
 Does anybody else out there wonder why Elvis bothered mumbling his way through “Here Comes Santa Claus”? 

It actually sounds like Elvis doing a parody of Elvis—as if he can’t wait to get the thing over with. Fortunately The King does get it over with, in just 1 minute, 54 seconds.
 Along with that and all the other covers, there are, occasionally, the odd original Christmas songs—the oddest of all surely being Dan Fogelburg’s “Same Old Lang Syne.”
 You’ve heard it: the singer meets his old lover in a grocery store, she drops her purse, they laugh, they cry, they get drunk and realize their lives have been a waste…and, oh, the snow turns to rain.
 So how, exactly, did that become a Christmas song?
 Then there’s ex-Beatle Paul McCartney’s “Wonderful Christmastime,” which combines an annoyingly catchy beat with dreadful lyrics, something McCartney often did when John Lennon wasn’t around.

 (After all, it was Lennon who replaced McCartney’s banal, teeny-boppish opening line for “I Saw Her Standing There”—“She was just seventeen/Never been a beauty queen” is what McCartney originally wrote—with the more suggestive “She was just seventeen/You know what I mean,” thereby turning a mediocre time-piece into a classic.)
 But Lennon was not around to save “Wonderful Christmastime” even though McCartney actually recorded this relatively new Christmas standard nearly thirty years ago, before Lennon was shot.
 It rightfully lay dormant until the advent of All-Christmas-All-The-Time programming a couple of years ago. Fortunately, by way of offset, Lennon’s own downbeat but enormously catchy “Happy Xmas (War is Over)” is played about as frequently as “Wonderful Christmastime.”
 Who but John Lennon would start a Christmas song: “And so this is Christmas/And what have you done…”?  Of course, who but Paul McCartney would start a Christmas song, “The moon is right/The spirit’s up?”
 If anything explains the Beatles’ breakup better than these two songs, we haven’t heard it.
 Now, we don’t normally pay much attention to Christmas songs. If it isn’t one of the aforementioned, or an old standard sung by Nat, Bing, Frank, Tony, Ella and a few others, we’d be clueless.
 But thanks to a remarkable new technology, we here at NotMakingThisUp suddenly found ourselves able to distinguish, for example, which blandly indistinguishable female voice sings which blandly indistinguishable version of “O Holy Night”—Kelly Clarkson, Celine Dion, or Mariah Carey—without any effort at all.
 The technology is Shazam—an iPhone application that might possibly have received the greatest amount of buzz for the least amount of apparent usefulness since cameras on cell phones first came out.
 For readers who haven’t seen the ads or heard about Shazam’s wonders from a breathless sub-25 year old, Shazam software lets you point your iPhone towards any source of recorded music, like a car radio, the speaker in a Starbucks, or even the jukebox in a bar—and learn what song is playing.
 Shazam does this by recording a selection of the music and analyzing the data. It then displays the name of the song, the artist, the album, as well as lyrics, a band biography and other doodads right there on the iPhone.
 Now, you may well ask, what possible use could there be for identifying a song playing in a bar?
 And unless you’re a music critic or a song-obsessed sub-25 year old, we’re still not sure.
 But we can say that Shazam is pretty cool. In the course of testing it on a batch of Christmas songs—playing on a standard, nothing-special, low-fi kitchen radio—heard from across the room, without making the least effort to get the iPhone close to the source of the music, Shazam figured out every song but one (a nondescript version of a nondescript song that it never could get) without a hitch.
 And, as a result, we can now report the following:
 1) It is astounding how many Christmas songs are out there nowadays, most of them not worth identifying, Shazam or no Shazam;


 2) All Christmas covers recorded in the last 10 years sound pretty much alike, as if they all use the same backing track, and thus require something like Shazam to distinguish one from the other;


 3) Nobody has yet done a cover version of Dan Fogelburg’s “Same Old Lang Syne,” which may be the truest sign of Hope in the holiday season;
 4) None of this matters because Mariah Carey screwed up the entire holiday song thing, anyway.


 Now, why, you may ask, would we pick on Mariah Carey, as opposed to, say, someone who can’t actually sing?
 Well, her “O Holy Night” happened to be the first song in our mini-marathon, and it really does seem to have turned Christmas song interpretation into a kind of vocal competitive gymnastics aimed strictly at showing off how much of the singer’s five-octave vocal range can be used, not merely within this one particular song, but within each measure of the song.
 In fact Mariah’s voice jumps around so much it sounds like somebody in the studio is tickling her while she’s singing.
 More sedate than Mariah, and possibly less harmful to the general category, The Carpenters’ version of “(There’s No Place Like) Home for the Holidays” comes on next, and it makes you think you’re listening to an Amtrak commercial rather than a Christmas song (“From Atlantic to Pacific/Gee, the traffic is terrific!”), so innocuous and manufactured it sounds.
 Johnny Mathis is similarly harmless, although his oddly eunuch-like voice can give you the creeps, if you really think about it. Mercifully, his version of “It’s Beginning to Look a Lot Like Christmas” is short enough (2:16) that you don’t think about it for long.
 Now, without Shazam we never would have known the precise time duration of that song.
 On the other hand, we would we never have been able to identify the perpetrators of what may be the single greatest travesty of the holiday season—Jessica Simpson and Nick Lachey, singing “Baby it’s Cold Outside.”


 “Singing” is actually too strong a word for what they do. Simpson’s voice barely rises above a whisper, and you cringe when she reaches for a note, although she does manage to hit the last, sustained “outside,” no doubt thanks to the magic of electronics.
 Thus the major downside of Shazam might be that it can promote distinctly anti-social behavior: having correctly identified who was responsible for this blight on holiday radio music, the listener might decide that if they ever ran across the pair in his or her car while singing along with the radio too loudly to notice, they wouldn’t stop to identify the bodies.
 Fortunately, the bad taste left by that so-called duet is washed away when Nat King Cole’s “The Christmas Song” comes on next.
 Thanks to Shazam, we learn that this is actually the fourth version Nat recorded. The man worked at his craft, and it shows. This is the best version of the song on record, by anyone, and probably one of the two or three best Christmas songs out there, period.
 The second those strings sweetly announce the tune, you relax, and by the time Cole’s smoky, gorgeous voice begins to sing, you’re in a distinctly Christmas mood like no other recording ever creates.
 (Unfortunately, the song’s actual writer, Mel Tormé, had the personality of a man perpetually seething for not getting proper recognition for having written one of the most popular Christmas songs of all time. We did not learn this from Shazam: we once saw Tormé perform at a small lounge, during which he managed to mention that he, not Nat King Cole, wrote “The Christmas Song”—as if this common misperception was still on everybody’s mind 35 years later. When that news flash did not seem to make the appropriate impression on the audience, he later broke off singing to chew out a less-than-attentive audience member, completely destroying the mood for the rest of the set.)
 Like that long-ago performance by the “Velvet Fog,” the pleasant sensation left behind by Cole’s “Christmas Song” is quickly soured, this time by a male singer performing “Let it Snow, Let it Snow, Let it Snow” in the manner of Harry Connick, Jr. doing a second-rate version of Sinatra.
 Who is this guy, we wonder?
 Shazam tells us it’s Michael Bublé. We are pondering how such a vocal lightweight became such a sensation in recent years—the answer must surely be electronics, because his voice, very distinctly at times, sounds like it has been synthesized—when John Lennon’s “Happy Xmas” comes on.
 It’s a great song, demonstrating as it does Lennon’s advice to David Bowie on how to write a song: “Say what you mean, make it rhyme and give it a backbeat.” The fact that Lennon had the best voice in rock and roll also helps.
 Unfortunately, his wife had the worst voice in rock and roll, and a brief downer it is when Yoko comes in on the chorus like a banshee. (Fortunately she is quickly drowned out by the children’s chorus from the Harlem Community Choir.)
 The other songs in our Shazam song-identification session are, we fear, too many to relate.
Sinatra, of course; Kelly Clarkson, an American Idol winner who essentially does a pale Mariah Carey impersonation; Blandy—er, Andy Williams; and one of the best: Tony Bennett.
 Then there’s Willie Nelson, who has a terrific, understated way of doing any song he wants—but sounds completely out of place singing “Frosty the Snowman.” One wonders exactly what kind of white powder Willie was thinking about while he was recording this, if you get our drift.
 Oh, and there’s Coldplay’s “Have Yourself a Merry Little Christmas,” which pairs the sweetest piano with the worst voice in any single Christmas song we heard; Amy Grant, a kind of female Andy Williams; the Ronettes, who are genuinely terrific—a great beat, no nonsense, and Ronnie singing her heart out with that New York accent; and then Mariah again, this time doing “Silent Night” with that same roller-coaster vocal gargling.
 Gene Autry’s all-too-popular version of “Here Comes Santa Claus” would be bearable except that he pronounces it “Santee Closs,” which is unfortunate in a song in which that word appears like 274 times. ‘N Sync is likewise unbearable doing “O Holy Night” a cappella, with harmonies the Brits would call cringe-making, and Mariah-type warbling to boot.
 Hall & Oates’s “Jingle Bell Rock” is too easy to confuse with the other versions of “Jingle Bell Rock”—thank you, Shazam, for clearing that up—while Martina McBride manages to sound eerily like Barbra Streisand imitating Linda Ronstadt singing “Have Yourself a Merry Little Christmas.”
 Winding things down is Dan Fogelburg’s aforementioned “Same Old Lang Syne,” and here we need to vent a little: something about the way he sings “liquor store”—he pronounces it “leeker store”—never fails to provoke powerful radio-smashing adrenalin surges.
 Fortunately, we suppress those urges today, because the Shazam experiment concludes with one of the best Christmas songs ever recorded. Better than Bing, and maybe even better than Nat, depending on your mood.
 It’s Bruce Springsteen. The Boss. Doing “Santa Claus is Comin’ to Town”…
live.
 Yes, this song was recorded live, and despite its age (more than 25 years old), the thing still jumps out of the radio and grabs you.
 Now, as Shazam informs us, this particular recording was actually the B-side of a single release called “My Hometown.” (Back in the day, kids, “singles” came with two songs, one on each side of a record: the “A” side was intended to be the hit song; the “B” side was, until the Beatles came along, for throwaway stuff.)
 Fortunately nobody threw this one away.
 Springsteen begins the familiar song with some audience patter and actual jingle bells; then he starts to sing and the band comes to life. Things move along smoothly through the verse and chorus…until ace drummer Max Weinberg kicks it into high gear and the band roars into a fast shuffle that takes the thing into a different realm altogether.
 Feeding off the audience, The Boss sings so hard his voice slightly breaks at times. Then he quiets down before roaring back into a tear-the-roof-off chorus, sometimes dropping words and laughing as he goes.
 This is real music—recorded in 1975 during a concert at the C.W. Post College—with no retakes, no production effects, and no electronic vocal repairs, either.
 Try doing that some time, Jessica and Nick.
 Actually, come to think of it, please don’t.
Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah and a Good New Year to all.
Jeff Matthews

Author “Secrets in Plain Sight: Business and Investing Secrets of Warren Buffett”
(eBooks on Investing, 2014)    Available now at Amazon.com

© 2016 NotMakingThisUp, LLC


Categories
Uncategorized

So Is Chipotle “Buzz-worthy” or “Meh”? The Texas Alcoholic Beverage Commission Says “Meh.”

 Chipotle reports
next week and we’ll finally get to see how 
the company’s “buzz-worthy” (their word, not
ours) marketing efforts (like the online game “Friend or Faux,” the “Chiptopia”
rewards program, and the online animated movie “A Love Story”) have been working
to bring customers back after last year’s food-borne illness outbreaks linked
to various Chipotle restaurants caused comp-store sales to tank, spurred a CDC
investigation and forced the self-styled “Food with Integrity” chain to spend a
lot of money upgrading the integrity of its food-handling procedures.
 Wall Street, for
the most part, seems convinced the storm will blow over—if a 100-times
next-year EPS multiple is any indication.
 Large shareholders have commissioned reports on the company’s turnaround efforts, interviewing food safety experts and “industry
veterans” on the “timeline for Chipotle’s recovery,” as one wrote, and the
consensus seems to be management will eventually convince the American public
that Chipotle really does serve “Food with Integrity,” but
safely—and then it’ll be onward and upward, like Jack-in-the-Box
after its deadly e-coli outbreak in 1993.
 
 But actually talking
to Chipotle customers, past and present, about how much they went before the
outbreaks, when they returned, and how frequently they go now, yields a very different
notion of what’s ailing Chipotle than strictly “food safety fears.”
 What we hear is
that lapsed customers aren’t so much afraid of getting sick—they just found
other places to go while they were away.
 But don’t take
our word for it.
 According to the recent
semi-annual Piper Jaffray survey of 6,500 red-blooded American teens and their
food and clothing habits, Chipotle ranked as their second-most favored
restaurant chain—even after all that “buzz-worthy” marketing—at 11%, behind
Starbucks at 14% and ahead of Chik-fil-A at 10%, a pretty big shift from the
early 2015 survey, when Chipotle nearly tied Starbucks for first-place at 14%
and was almost twice as popular as Chik-fil-A at 7.5%.
 And while your
editor hasn’t interviewed anywhere near 6,500 teenagers, we have talked to
quite a range of Chipotle customers, past and present, around the country.
   Though
far from being a scientific sample, we found two “buckets,” as Wall Street’s
Finest like to say: the first includes former customers (generally women) who
were offended that the “Food with Integrity” folks had apparently made
customers ill and seemingly wasted time griping about the CDC and/or the press
coverage instead of immediately, contritely and completely dealing with the issue.
   They either refuse to go back, or, almost
certainly go less than before the outbreaks.
  
 The second
“bucket” is the heavy users (generally young men) who still go—but generally not
as often as before, for whatever reason—some claim the food doesn’t taste as
good as they remembered it; others simply say they just found other places to
go.
  On the flip side, they say, the
lines tend to be shorter.
 In general, the attitude
from both buckets—major fans and occasional partakers—might best be summed up
as “meh.”
 Understand,
these are impressions from talking to real people, not a scientific
survey.
  But we haven’t found a single non-interested
(i.e. Wall Street-type) who has said in no uncertain terms, “It’s still great,
I go back, and I spend as much as I used to.”
  
 Maybe Chipotle
customers are like those Trump voters you hear about who don’t want to admit
they’re voting for him, and maybe most of them are in fact eating as much or
more than they used to, even if we don’t hear it, and maybe Piper Jaffray interviewed
the wrong 6,500 teens.
 But there’s one
other way to get a sense of how Chipotle’s “buzz-worthy” marketing is doing
getting customers back to its 2,000+ stores, which for some reason the company keeps growing like a 20% comp company even though comp-store sales are down double-digits
(just ask Boston Chicken how that math works out in the long-run).
 Turns out the Texas Alcohol Beverage Commission reports monthly
numbers from every establishment that reports to it, from the lowliest bar to
the biggest chain.
 And while beer
sales are a tiny part of Chipotle’s business—never even mentioned on any
earnings call—they are a piece of the business and they depend on customers
walking in the door and buying food to go along with their beer.
   So while the TABC numbers may not be as good
an indicator of overall sales trends as, say, sales of Coke at McDonald’s would
be, they’re something to look at.
 Here’s what we
came up with, on the left, with the company’s actual reported total sales on
the right:

 Granted, these
are not “comp-store” sales, nor have we been able to adjust for the collapse in
oil prices, which certainly dinged beer sales in Texas well before Chipotle as
a whole got whacked on the food-borne illness outbreaks.
   But they’re numbers, and we’ll take them.
 Moreover, Pizza
Hut, which likewise sells small amounts of alcohol relative to its food volume
and has a fair number of stores in Texas, showed a slowdown in 2014 in the TABC
data, although not the dramatic collapse like Chipotle:
 The point is,
the data make some sense.
   Which makes it
interesting to try to see how things are progressing more recently.
  
 Thus far in 2016
the monthly data only runs through July, so we don’t have a full third quarter
to see how far off the bottom sales have leaped following the “Love Story” video
and “Chiptopia.”
  
 But we do
have June and July TABC figures, and comparing the first two months of each quarter
of the year (just for some sort of consistency’s sake) yields the following as
an indication of trends thus far:
 

 In other words,
“meh.”
 But we’ll get
the real numbers next week, along with word of whatever “buzz-worthy” marketing
gimmicks come next.
 Meantime, we’re
going to hit the Dos Toros at 54
th and Lex.   Or the one at 52nd and 6th.   Or 45th and Lex.  Or…
Jeff
Matthews
I
Am Not Making This Up
© 2016 NotMakingThisUp, LLC                      

The content contained in this blog
represents only the opinions of Mr. Matthews.  
Mr. Matthews also acts as an advisor and clients advised by Mr. Matthews
may hold either long or short positions in securities of various companies
discussed in the blog based upon Mr. Matthews’ recommendations.  This commentary in no way constitutes
investment advice, and should never be relied on in making an investment
decision, ever.  Also, this blog is not a
solicitation of business by Mr. Matthews: all inquiries will be ignored.  The content herein is intended solely for the
entertainment of the reader, and the author.
Categories
Uncategorized

Mattress Fire

 Back in May—that’s less than two months ago—the Chief Marketing Officer of Mattress Firm (ticker: MFRM;
Tangible Book Value
Negative $30.32
Per Share if our Bloomberg is correct)—was asked how business had started the
new year.
  “It continues to
be a bit choppy…” he began—choppy
being one of those euphemisms Wall Street hates to hear—before adding, in the
true nature of a marketing guy, “…but we’re SUPER optimistic that we’re coming
up on summer selling season, Memorial Day…”
 Sure enough, Memorial
Day did come—even if Mattress Firm appeared to begin the Memorial Day sales event
a week or two before the actual weekend—giving the CEO something positive to
talk about on the ensuing earnings call, when some of the more important
numbers were otherwise going the wrong way.
 Specifically,
while MFRM showed 49% revenue growth in the first quarter, it was thanks mainly
to the acquisition of Sleepy’s and other mattress retailers the previous twelve
months.   What analysts call “organic” growth was
somewhat less than 49%.  
 Like, 5,000 basis
points less.
 Comp-store sales were
down 1.1% in the quarter (despite a boost from the inclusion of e-commerce
sales from the recently acquired 1,000-store Sleepy’s chain in those “comp-store
sales,” for some weird reason).
 For a clearer
picture of the sales trend at what management itself likes to call “the first truly
border-to-border, coast-to-coast multi-brand mattress retailer,” it’s worth
noting that comp-store transactions—i.e.
stripping out the effect of sales mix—were down 0.9%.
 That decline in comp-store
transactions at MFRM was not, however, a new phenomenon: MFRM has reported
declining comp-store units in each of the last five quarters (except for one
that was termed “roughly flat”).
 The seemingly
innocuous 0.9% comp-unit decline in the most recent quarter looks a little less
innocuous when you consider it was up against a seemingly easy-to-beat 6.4%
unit decline in the same quarter last year.
 As usual with
MFRM, however, things got better after the quarter ended, according to management on the
call: “Since Memorial Day our trends have been positive and in line with our revised
same-store sales guidance,” they said.
 We’ve heard that
kind of “things got better this week” from companies reporting otherwise dour
news many times…in fact, we heard it from MFRM last year, when it reported that
negative 6.4% unit comp quarter: “However, late in the quarter we implemented
certain initiatives to drive units and we had subsequently seen positive
results.”
 Prosperity at
Mattress Firm is always just around the corner.
 Unfortunately,
just around that corner is a new competitor: the internet.
 Specifically, what
are termed “Bed-in-a-Box” competitors (Tuft & Needle, Casper et al) that sell
mattresses rolled up in boxes delivered straight to your door by UPS and
therefore have no need for 3,500 stores like MFRM, or commissioned sales employees
or delivery trucks.
 Indeed, according
to figures disclosed at a Furniture Today conference in May, the “Bed-in-a-Box”
industry—and full disclosure, your editor is a happy repeat Casper customer—is
running at a $900 million sales rate right now, from a standing start 4 years
ago.
 While $900 million
might not sound like much in an industry reported to be worth $7 billion in
total (mattresses, not all bedding-related products), it would be the
equivalent of about 700 Mattress Firm stores by our math, or about 20% of those
“boarder-to-boarder, coast-to-coast” stores.
 Is it any wonder
MFRM comp-store transactions have been flat-lining lately?
 And while MFRM
would probably note that many of the bed-in-a-box vendors are establishing
show-rooms in major cities like Manhattan, we’d bet money that they won’t open
anything close to 3,500 stores when it’s all over. 
 Why bother?  They’re already “boarder-to-boarder, coast-to-coast”
mattress retailers, in the sense that they can ship anywhere a UPS truck can
go, without the fixed cost structure.
 All this makes
last night’s news that MFRM had disclosed a “material weakness” in its
just-filed 10Q involving “controls relating to accounting for significant
transactions” even more interesting than the usual “material weakness”
disclosure in your average 10Q:
“Specifically,
we did not design and maintain effective controls related to the recording of
the expense for the flow through of the inventory step up fair value adjustment
in the Sleepy’s acquisition. We believe the financial statements included herein
properly reflect the correct amount and proper classification of the flow
through of the Sleepy’s inventory step-up adjustment….”
 You
might think that a company with $1.1 million of cash and $1.6 billion of total
intangible assets on its balance sheet (thanks to its “coast-to-coast” rollup
of mattress retailers) against $1.45 billion of debt, negative $55.4 million of
retained earnings and $477.4 million of total shareholder equity would have been on
those issues before they cropped up, but apparently not.
 Meanwhile, and unfortunately for MFRM, the
Caspers of the world are not sitting still, and watching a reported $900
million worth of mattresses get siphoned off to direct-to-consumer competitors
is exactly the thing Mattress Firm doesn’t need at this moment.
 The company spent
years steadily snapping up new geographies as part of its grand plan—Mattress
Giant, Sleep Experts, Mattress Liquidators, Best Mattress, Sleep Train and,
finally, Sleepy’s—at the very moment clever Millennials were figuring out how to
design, manufacture and ship a mattress in a box so that they and their friends
didn’t have to deal with the process of schlepping down to one of those stores
Mattress Firm has been accumulating.
 So when we hear
the word “choppy” to describe the sales environment—as we did in May from MFRM’s
own marketing man—our ears perk up.  
 “Choppy” is one of
those Wall Street euphemisms that can often mean a whole lot more than it looks
on paper.  
 It’s right up
there with analysts who are “tweaking our estimates lower” (i.e. slashing them)
and sales that have “come in a bit light” (i.e. not even close to plan).
 Or, our favorite,
management that is “laser-focused” on the company’s problems (i.e. playing
solitaire on their iPhones).
  Unfortunately for MFRM, “material weakness” is not a euphemism. 
Jeff Matthews
I Am Not Making This Up
© 2016 NotMakingThisUp, LLC

The content contained in this blog represents only the
opinions of Mr. Matthews.   Mr. Matthews
also acts as an advisor and clients advised by Mr. Matthews may hold either
long or short positions in securities of various companies discussed in the
blog based upon Mr. Matthews’ recommendations. 
This commentary in no way constitutes investment advice, and should
never be relied on in making an investment decision, ever.  Also, this blog is not a solicitation of business
by Mr. Matthews: all inquiries will be ignored. 
The content herein is intended solely for the entertainment of the
reader, and the author.
Categories
Uncategorized

Well That Was a Shack-ingly Brief Run

  In the world of
Shake-Shack, everything is about “The Shack.”
  
 Where most
restaurants report “same-store sales” and “store-level operating margins” and “store
economics,” SHAK reports “same-shack” sales and “shack-level operating margins”
and “shack-onomics.”
 It’s a cute,
quirky culture the company has built from modest roots—the now-famous hot-dog
stand in Madison Square Park—into an international phenomenon, in 12 short
years.
 Of course, 12
years in today’s world is actually a long time, but things didn’t get serious
until 2004 when the first Shake Shack restaurant opened, starting the launching
pad that would shoot the rocket ship into orbit following the wildly hyped IPO
just 16 months ago to the point where, by
 the end of the
first quarter, there would be 88 such “Shacks,” with an inordinately large number—36 to be
exact—licensed to other operators outside the U.S., mainly in the Middle East.
 And it is towards
that Middle East exposure we turn our attention here, since Wall Street’s
Finest haven’t bothered—and anything Wall Street’s Finest don’t bother with is
always interesting to this virtual column.
 Not so long ago—in
the July 2015 S-1, for the record—SHAK described the Middle East as “our most prominent growth
market.” 
 And the Middle
East clearly was the prominent growth
market at that point, having seen 49.7% licensing revenue growth in the fourth
quarter of 2014.
 But by the first
quarter of 2016 that growth rate had throttled down to 14.3%.
 What happened to
SHAK’s “most prominent growth market”?
 Here’s what
management said on the recent earnings call:
 Now, while the Middle East remains a very
important market and part of our international footprint, we are
experiencing softness in sales there this year, particularly in our mall
locations throughout energy-dependent markets that are seeing a natural
economic slowdown right now coupled with currency headwinds. So we expect
sales in our Middle East Shacks to remain under pressure through this year
given the macro environment in the region.”
 Not too long ago—i.e.
last summer, around the same time as the aforementioned S-1—the company was describing the Middle East in far rosier terms:
“When
we had just opened the second 
Shake Shack on
the Upper West Side of New York, Mohammed Alshaya, probably many of you know
Alshaya, from the Middle East, came to us and said, I don’t normally do this. 
I normally go with much bigger brands here, and I know you only have two, but
I think Shake Shack would do tremendous in the Middle
East and I want to
bring you over. And Danny and Randy kind of looked at
each other and shook their heads, but out of pure curiosity got on a
plane and went to Dubai, saw the way Alshaya operates, saw how they do
things, saw how their culture connects with ours and said, you know
what, let’s take a chance, let’s do it.  So they opened a Shake Shack in the Mall of the Emirates in Dubai
and it was
one of the leading restaurants in the system and still is at
this time.”
 Alshaya is,
indeed, a legit operator, and they do indeed normally go with bigger brands.   They’ve
opened Cheesecake Factories and Pottery Barns, and they know how to do it. 
 But Cheesecake
Factory and Pottery Barn took their time on the whole opening-a-zillion-stores-overseas thing.   
 Specifically, it took Cheesecake Factory 35 years before they opened
their first restaurant overseas, in Dubai, with Alshaya in 2012—and the company
spent a lot of time getting ready.  
 After all,
Cheesecakes in Dubai can’t serve alcohol or sell pork products, so the menu had
to be adjusted and the company’s culture had to be transported all the way from
Calabasas Hills to the United Arab Emirates.
 Today Alshaya
operates just 9 Cheesecakes, compared to the couple-dozen-plus Shacks it opened with a
bang not so long ago.
 And while Cheesecake
has let it be known, most recently in March, that its international units
continue to do well, SHAK said on its recent call the Middle East market is already “maturing…quite a bit” as it switched the focus to new licensees in Asia:
   “If you look at our guidance of seven Shacks
all year here for that, the Middle East has got quite a few restaurants
there. Our region is maturing for Shake Shack quite a bit. We have some
great opportunity. We just opened in Riyadh and doing really well there.
As I’ve said, in Bahrain and Oman. So we fully expected that region
to mature a little bit.”
 From “our most
prominent growth market” to a “maturing” region in less than 12 months might be
a record.   
 Not the record a growth
company wants to hold, but a record nonetheless.
Jeff Matthews
I Am Not Making This Up
© 2016 NotMakingThisUp, LLC

The content contained in this blog represents only the
opinions of Mr. Matthews.   Mr. Matthews
also acts as an advisor and clients advised by Mr. Matthews may hold either
long or short positions in securities of various companies discussed in the
blog based upon Mr. Matthews’ recommendations. 
This commentary in no way constitutes investment advice, and should
never be relied on in making an investment decision, ever.  Also, this blog is not a solicitation of business
by Mr. Matthews: all inquiries will be ignored. 
The content herein is intended solely for the entertainment of the
reader, and the author.
Categories
Uncategorized

When Analysts Surrender

 It’s bad enough
when analysts thank CEOs for letting them ask a question on an company earnings
call, at least when they do it in a way that goes beyond a simple act of politeness and more towards a cringe-making act of fawning, which too many analysts have a way of doing these days.
 This is, after
all, a business: it’s an analyst’s job
to ask questions; it’s a CEO’s job to answer them.   Get on with it.
 What’s worse,
however—much worse—is when an analyst who asks a good question gets schmoozed by
the CEO, and instead of following up and getting an answer, surrenders.
 It happened
tonight on the Apple call.
 After thanking the
company for “fitting me in” (really?) the analyst asked Tim Cook—all quotes are from the
indispensable Seeking Alpha—a very reasonable question about the “top two
or three things” that had changed from the previous quarter, when Apple’s CEO
was way more bullish about the demand environment for iPhones than it turned
out to be.
 Cook’s response
turned the question into a math equation:
 “…we
did not contemplate or comprehend that we were going to make a $2 billion-plus
reduction in channel inventory during this quarter. And so if you factor that
in and look at true customer demand, which is the way that we look at it
internally, I think you’ll find a much more reasonable comparison.
 The analyst jumped
on Cook for changing the subject—after all, he said, the fact that you decided
to cut $2 billion out of channel inventory must mean you had $2 billion more
product in the channel than you expected, which means “true customer demand,”
as Cook called it, was $2 billion weaker than plan, right?
 Ha!  We’re joking.
 The analyst did no
such thing.   He surrendered.   “Okay, great.  Thank you,” he said, and then asked a
softball follow-up.
 Tim Cook took home
$10.3 million last year.   He can handle
tough questions.
 Personally, I’d
like to know why Cook—who gets on his high moral horse every time some
politically correct brushfire starts up somewhere in America—gives up without a
sound when the Chinese authorities demand the Apple Store stop carrying apps
involving the Dalai Lama.
 We know the
answer: money.
 Still, it would be
fun to ask.

 But don’t hold your breath.

Jeff Matthews
I Am Not Making This Up
© 2016 NotMakingThisUp, LLC

The content contained in this blog represents only the
opinions of Mr. Matthews.   Mr. Matthews
also acts as an advisor and clients advised by Mr. Matthews may hold either
long or short positions in securities of various companies discussed in the
blog based upon Mr. Matthews’ recommendations. 
This commentary in no way constitutes investment advice, and should
never be relied on in making an investment decision, ever.  Also, this blog is not a solicitation of business
by Mr. Matthews: all inquiries will be ignored. 
The content herein is intended solely for the entertainment of the
reader, and the author.
Categories
Uncategorized

The Graduate From Spinal Tap…The NotMakingThisUp Review of Dan Lyons’ “Disrupted: My Misadventure in the Start-Up Bubble”



Mr. McCleery: You aren’t one of those agitators, are
you?
Benjamin: What?
Mr. McCleery: I hate ’em. I won’t stand for it.
—The Graduate

  We here at
NotMakingThisUp only write book reviews when we like the book.   (If we don’t like it, we don’t write
anything at all, because it’s hard—really hard—to write a book, so just the
fact that someone has written a book ought to be respected, not criticized.)   Journalist Dan Lyons has not only written a
book, but it’s good—and not just “good,” but laugh-out-loud good.
  The subject
matter, however, is not always laugh-out-loud funny. 
  It’s about Lyons’ time at HubSpot, the “cloud-based marketing and sales software platform company”
he worked for at roughly the peak of the Web 2.0 cycle (Lyons would probably
describe it as a “spam-based marketing and sales software platform company,”
but we’ll go with the official terminology), and while you may be more familiar
with the frat-boy excerpts that have already made made plenty of headlines,
they’re nothing anybody who was around during the last bubble hasn’t heard
about before and don’t need repeating here.  
  Way more
interesting is Lyons’ take on what it’s like to be a 50+ year old Boomer working
at a hotshot Millennial company—or “cult,” as he sees it.
  Lyons listens to
conference calls with the company’s ‘social media scientist,’ “a competitive
weightlifter who lives in Las Vegas and basically does nothing”; he spends too
much time in meetings, which, “like most journalists—and, I would argue, most
sane people” he detests; and he gets so fed up with the bubbly self-reinforcing
“Happy!!  Awesome!! Start-Up Cult”
culture that he begins sending around emails like “Jan is the best!!!  Her can-do attitude and big smile cheer me up
every morning!!!!!!!” about the “grumpy woman who runs the blog,” until he is
told to “cut that s— out.”
  It’s a riot, and
it makes the book swing, but that’s not the important stuff.
  The important
stuff includes the sheer whiteness of the workforce, which should be no
surprise to him but is (did he really report on the technology world most of
his career and not notice that before?); not to mention the youngness of the
place, which should also be no surprise to him (does he not know how young Mark
Zuckerberg still is?)
  But the spookiest
bit has nothing to do with the age thing, or the “astonishing lack of
diversity” (did he think poverty-trapped kids from Harlem are actively
recruited by young affluent suburban white kids?), it’s the cultish behavior
reinforced from the top, most notably in the way in which employees who’ve been
fired are NOT said to have been “fired” or to have “resigned to pursue other
interests.”
   They are said to
have “graduated.”
   “Nobody ever talks about the people who
graduate,” writes Lyons, “and nobody ever mentions how weird it is to call it ‘graduation.’”   Yet “graduations” happen quite a lot,
apparently: the best line in the book being “People just go up in smoke, like
Spinal Tap drummers.”
  Of course, Lyons himself
eventually “graduates” after the culture clash starts to get to him (which it actually
did on his first day at HubSpot, but he persevered)  and he begins to set himself up in ways that make
you scratch your head and wonder if he ever actually worked in a corporate
environment.
  Exhibit A in the
did-he-really-not-see-this-coming-a-mile-away setup to his own graduation is
when Lyons pitches a new online magazine—an
idea his direct boss had already rejected
—to his boss’s bosses without his
boss knowing Lyons was going over his head.
  “They love the
idea,” he says of the meeting with HubSpot’s co-founders.  “That night I go home feeling like a
conquering hero.”
  Poor bastard, you
think, reading that line.
  Exhibit B in the
did-he-really-not-see-this-coming-a-mile-away department is when Lyons is shocked—shocked!—that
nothing subsequently happens, because he didn’t have anyone else at the meeting
to verify that the two co-founders actually approved the idea. 
  As one colleague
far wiser than Lyons in the ways of corporate politics tells him, “You should
have had a witness.”
  Exhibit C in the did-he-really-not-see-this-coming-a-mile-away department, naturally, is when Lyons’
boss-who-rejected-the-idea-before-Lyons-chose-to-go-over-his-head appropriates the
idea as his own.
  By now, however,
even Lyons has figured out what’s happening: “At this point the message could
not be more clear,” he writes.   His boss
“is doing everything short of hiring a skywriter to scrawl GET OUT, DAN in the
airspace above HubSpot headquarters.”
  Lyons at least
has some fun as the clock winds down.  
At an anything-goes marketing idea meeting he proposes putting an “unbearably
ambitious and energetic young woman who recently graduated from college, loves
HubSpot more than life itself, and would do just about anything to get a
promotion” in an orange (the Hubspot color) jumpsuit and helmet and firing her “right
through an open window and into a cubicle. 
Bang!  There she is!  She doesn’t miss a beat.  She just starts giving a lecture about
marketing.”
  To a cynical career
journalist, HubSpot was a gift that kept on giving.
  On the downside,
however, Lyons stretches at times to make bigger points—something book editors
tend to encourage authors to do in order to gin up the meaning of an otherwise highly
enjoyable, and very telling fish-out-of-water memoir.
  For example, trying
to turn his time at HubSpot into a lesson about the cheerful heartlessness of
the Web 2.0 revolution, he actually quotes Carl Icahn—the slimeball takeover
artist who bankrupted TWA while pocketing a sweet discount airline ticket deal
for himself, among many other things that make Donald Trump look magnanimous and would normally set a cynical journalist’s hair on fire—about
Marc Andreessen from back when they were fighting over eBay, which is stupid
because Andreessen (think Netscape, Facebook, Twitter, among other
life-changing companies he’s been involved in) has added more value to the
current quality of life in America than even Carl Icahn has managed to extract
for himself.
  Lyons also quotes,
of all things, a snarky Robert Reich “Facebook post” about the sharing economy
having become a “share the scraps” economy—tell that to the next Uber driver you
get who’s paying his way through college or saving for a condo or running a
non-profit and wouldn’t have the flexibility to earn extra income without Uber.
 Finally, Lyons surveys
the money-losing business models of so many Web 2.0 start-ups and naively
wonders “why there are so many companies that remain in business while losing
money”—this after he has started the book with a chapter about getting fired
from his prestigious and well-paying job at Newsweek Magazine, which, like most
dead-tree publications “has been losing money for years.”
  Losing money,
whether for a start-up with vast potential, like Amazon.com, or for a fading
franchise like Newsweek, has never stopped anybody from trying.  That is, after all, Capitalism.
  But the
big-picture stuff feels like an editor made him do it, because the other 98% of
the book moves fast, tells a great story, and actually will make you
laugh. 
  Out loud.
—JM

  NB:
Just for the record, prior to its publication, the author of Disrupted asked,
and I answered, a couple of questions about my perspective on the SAAS business
model of Salesforce.com.
Categories
Uncategorized

Don’t Mention The Earnings Miss. I Mentioned It Once But I Think I Got Away With It…

  
  Well it’s earnings season again.  
  That means it’s time for IBM to puke another
quarter and hold an incomprehensible—literally, incomprehensible—earnings call
during which it spins every data point in such a positive light that you’d
think they held the winning Powerball ticket, while strictly limiting analysts to
one question—no follow-ups, please—and abruptly cutting things off when the
hour is up.
  For those of us accustomed to the full
disclosure practiced by the terrible, horrible, no-good banks, this practice of
IBM’s management team not belaboring bad news is something out of Fawlty Towers
(“Don’t mention The War.   I mentioned it once but I think I got away
with it.
”)  
  By way of comparison, Wells Fargo and Citi’s
back-to-back earnings calls last Friday started at 10 a.m. E.S.T. and ended at 1:15
p.m., give or take.   
  Analysts on both calls were free
to “get back in the queue,” as they say, and they did, until every question was
exhausted.
  But that practice is not the IBM Way.   No sir.  
  Windy analysts are quickly cut off and the
opportunity to follow-up an obfuscatory answer (the IBM norm) is not given—bringing to mind yet another Basil Fawlty line:
Trespassers will be tied up with piano wire.”
  So if you didn’t get a chance to listen to
IBM’s earnings call—and we’ve poked fun at them for years, most recently
here—you really ought to read the transcript courtesy of the indispensible
Seeking Alpha, here.
  If you didn’t know any better, you’d think that
IBM is swimming in gold, that its cloud offerings are taking the world by storm
(“We’re the largest,” they declare, without mentioning that their internal measure includes
low-margin IBM hardware), and that Watson, which as they always remind us won
Jeopardy in 2011 (or was it 2010?  Or was
it actually Wheel of Fortune during Kardashian Week?) is the next Amazon Web Services, which it is not.
  In reality, IBM’s revenues are down—even in
the not-falling-apart Americas—its cash flows are down, its share repurchases
are down (even though the stock is down, and presumably more attractive than the last time they spent billions propping it up), and
the only reason it “beat the number” was, naturally, the tax rate, which IBM
plays like Duane Allman played “Whipping Post.”  
(See “Bring Out the Belgian Waffle!” here.)
  Oh, and never forget that IBM always makes sure to exclude the negative impact of currency and divestitures on these calls and in their press releases, but does not exclude the positive impact of acquisitions.   And IBM made seven cloud acquisitions alone in 2015.
  Altogether, it is, as we started at the top, literally
incomprehensible.   
  And if you don’t
believe us, try this answer from the CFO on for size, about the miss in IBM’s
super-high-margin software business:
  Sure thank you, thanks Toni. A few comments
on software, so as we said in our prepared remarks, the deceleration third to
fourth really was driven by this – by the mix shift and the continuation of the
transaction closing rates that we saw in September. So we talked about – coming
out of September we talked about a slower rate of closing in some of our larger
deals and that’s what we experienced as well in the fourth quarter. And as I
mentioned in my prepared remarks, because of the mix shift alone we see an
improvement and as you point out the weather company another acquisitions by
the way to the extent that they are – have software in them they will obviously
bolster that growth rate.
  A few things, I think are important to note within
software. First, as we said in our prepared remarks and the phenomena is really
no different in the fourth and what we’ve seen all year, our annuity business
within the software business. So that’s about 70% of our overall software
stream. Our annuity business continues to grow. So that has a service in it, it
has our subscription and support business in it as well, so that continues to
grow.
  And then outside of our largest clients and
this is a phenomena that we’ve been talking about, outside of our largest
clients where they don’t have as broad access to our software portfolio, we
continue to see growth as well, both transactionally and they’re obviously part
of the asset service stream. Within the large clients as I mentioned earlier
and as we talked about in our prepared remarks, we provide flexibility, it
gives them – it gives our clients an ability now to manage their projects and
they deploy maybe differently than they anticipated at the beginning of the
year. From my discussions with our clients, a lot of that depends on the
visibility they have both of their demand patterns and the visibility they have
to sort of the – kinds of projects they might have to implement in the
near-term.
  So I don’t think that’s any different than
what we’ve experienced in the past…
 If you can make anything of that—and we’re
pretty sure even Warren Buffett, the largest IBM shareholder, couldn’t make
anything of that—let us know.
  Meantime, don’t
mention
the revenue drop, the earnings decline or the cash flow
shortfall.   I mentioned them once but I think I got away with it
Jeff Matthews

Author
“Secrets in Plain Sight: Business and Investing Secrets of Warren Buffett”
(eBooks
on Investing, 2015)    Available now at Amazon.com
© 2016
NotMakingThisUp, LLC



The content contained in this blog represents only
the opinions of Mr. Matthews.
  Mr.
Matthews also acts as an advisor and clients advised by Mr. Matthews may hold
either long or short positions in securities of various companies discussed in
the blog based upon Mr. Matthews’ recommendations. This commentary in no way
constitutes investment advice, and should never be relied on in making an
investment decision, ever. Also, this blog is not a solicitation of business by
Mr. Matthews: all inquiries will be ignored. The content herein is intended
solely for the entertainment of the reader, and the author.
Categories
Uncategorized

Shazam! From The Boss to The King to John & Paul (but not George or Ringo), Not to Mention Jessica & Nick

2015
Editor’s Note:
 We have not heard much new in the way of
holiday music, so let’s turn straight to the rock and roll biography
scene—specifically Chrissie Hyndes’ autobiography, “Reckless: My Life as a
Pretender,” which is like witnessing a car wreck in book form.
 While there’s plenty here that’s harmless and
bland (early days in Ohio, e.g.), there’s plenty that makes you want to put the
book away in a very dark place, and all you can think is, How was she not
part of “that stupid club,
” as Kurt Cobain’s mother called it?  (Look it up,
kids.)
  Similarly depressing are some rock movies
we’ve been watching on Netflix—starting with the Levon Helms biography, “Ain’t
In It for My Health,” which minces no words when it comes to his former bandmate and nemesis, the Canadian
songwriter Robbie Robertson, who squeezed out of Levon (the only American in The Band) vibrant scenes of Americana (“The Weight,” and especially,
“The Night They Drove Old Dixie Down”) without sharing the royalties.
  Even more depressing than the Hynes book and
the Helms movie combined, however, is the Glenn Campbell-gets-diagnosed-with-Alzheimers-while-you-watch
film, “I’ll Be Me.”  Your editor saw
Campbell perform at a Wall Street birthday bash circa 1997, and he was clearly
miserable throughout: flushed faced and word-slurring, Campbell and his band blew
through his greatest hits like Bob Dylan on a bad day, and, embarrassingly to
everybody in the room, kept calling the host—whose name was Paul and who, when
introducing the singer, nearly broke down while talking about how much it meant
having him perform—“Pete.”
 But “I’ll Be Me” does a great job explaining
Campbell’s life now and back when…and if you’re interested in knowing more about that back when, you ought to watch “The Wrecking Crew,” our last movie
shout-out.
 “The Wrecking Crew” was the name of the L.A.
session players behind The Byrds, The Beach Boys and classics like “I Got You,
Babe”—just listen to Hal Blaine’s slamming drums on the outro—and the movie is
a joyous look at the faces behind the instruments behind the songs.  Glen Campbell was a supremely talented
guitarist for the Wrecking Crew before he decided—to the initial amusement and
later jealousy of some of the Crew—go for the gold himself.
 Suggestions on other movies (and books) are
encouraged in the comments below…after all, your editor hasn’t finished
compiling his Christmas list, if you get our drift…
Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah
and a Good New Year to All!
—JM, December 3, 2015
2014
Editor’s Note:
 Well,
Michael Bublé’s computer is still releasing holiday songs, which is the worst
we can say about this year’s holiday music survey.  The best we can
say—and it is truly good news—is that The Boss’s hard-driving, live version of
“Santa Claus is Comin’ to Town,” done entirely without computer-aided
Bublé-style vocals, seems to be gaining much deserved traction.  
 Meanwhile,
one of our previous also-ran mentions in the What-Did-We-Do-To-Deserve-This?
category, one Taylor Swift, deserves a big boo-yah for telling the Spotify
algorithms to stuff it, pulling her entire catalogue from the
automated listening service—including, by definition, the song mentioned here
last year, which should be no tragedy to Spotify customers anyhow.
 As
for our usual review of the latest rock memoirs, which tend to flood the
bookshelves right about now—only to turn up in the mark-down bins come spring,
which is when your editor actually buys them—the best read during brief trips
to our local, increasingly down-on-its-heals Barnes & Noble, has to be
Mick Fleetwood’s “Play On.”
 Fleetwood
is one of the most underrated drummers in rock music, being the kind who drives
the beat without histrionics and stays well behind the kit while the
front-people do their thing (it was Fleetwood and fellow Mac bassist John McVie
who rescued “Werewolves of London” for Warren Zevon and producer
Jackson Browne, after the house band could not make the song work) so his
remembrances of the formation of Fleetwood Mac are insightful and compelling
even for those—including your editor—who were never big Fleetwood Mac fans.
 Currently
priced at $30.79 at Barnes & Noble for the hard copy version, or $21.00
on Amazon, I’ll wait until spring and pick it up for $5.99—sorry Mick, but
that’s the business we’re in.
 Merry
Christmas, Happy Hanukkah and a Good New Year to all!
—JM,
December 19, 2014
2013
Editor’s Note:
  The most unnerving aspect to this
year’s holiday music survey is the unavoidable, near-totalitarian presence
of an insipid cover version of George Michael’s already-plenty-insipid-for-our-taste-thank-you-very-much
“Last Christmas,” which, as we point out below has one of the most inane
choruses ever written (no mean feat there), which wouldn’t be so bad except it
is repeated over and over and over until you want to hand yourself over to
Vladimir Putin’s security forces and let them do their worst.  
 The
perpetrator of this latest holiday music outrage is, it turns out, Taylor
Swift, about whom your editor knows nothing except she adds exceedingly little
to a song that needed plenty of help to begin with.
 But,
as always with these annual surveys, your editor digresses.
 On
the happier side of the music world, this last year has seen a number of
excellent new rock memoirs, of which Kinks front-man and songwriting genius Ray
Davies’ is the most interesting.
 The
centerpiece of the story line in Ray’s “Americana” is his getting shot
by a mugger in New Orleans some years back, but interspersing that tale he
manages to tell much of the story of his career.  
 If
you want to read how Ray came up with classics like “Better Things” (why
couldn’t that be a Christmas song?   It’s as much about the
holidays as “Same Old Lang Syne,” about which your editor has plenty to say
later on), this is your book.
 Neil
Young’s “Waging Heavy Peace,” which came out last year, is even better
than “Americana,” however, and more fun to keep picking up when the mood
strikes: Neil’s recollections are loopy, digressive, and admittedly unsure in
some cases (at one point he compares his memory of a drug bust with
Stephen Stills’ recollection of the same drug bust—and given that Neil only
stopped “smoking weed” the year before writing the book, as he admits, it’s no
wonder their recollections are very different), but like all things Neil Young,
he says what he means and means what he says.  
 And
if you’re wondering where songs come from—great songs, eternal songs—Neil’s
book is the place to begin.  
 Would
that a holiday song may one day spring from the fecund mind of Neil Young
himself, for while he professes more of a Native American religious spirit than
a Judeo-Christian one, either way, it would be so long Taylor Swift.
 Merry
Christmas, Happy Hanukkah and a Good New Year to all!
—JM,
December 7, 2013
2012
Editor’s Note:
 We interrupt this holiday music review to
bring you a potential stocking-stuffer that ought to bring tidings of good
cheer…  
 2011
Editor’s Note
: Back by popular demand, we’ll again try to keep
this year’s update brief…but past performance would tell you not to hold your
breath.  Here goes.
 Our
annual holiday music survey—highly biased, rankly unscientific and in no way
comprehensive—covers new ground this year, to wit: the SiriusXM
all-holiday-music channel.
 Actually,
there are two such channels courtesy of the satellite radio
monopolists at SiriusXM.  There’s one for “traditional” music of the Bing
Crosby kind, in which human beings sing traditional Christmas songs while other
human beings play musical instruments to accompany those songs; and there’s
another channel for everything else, including the Auto-Tune-dependent
sensation Michael Bublé, who has only gotten more popular—unfortunately—this
year, along with a new presence not entirely unexpected but nonetheless
frightening in its implications: Justin Bieber.
 Enough
said about that, for our main beef with SiriusXM is not the
presence of yet another teen idol on the holiday music scene.
 Our
beef lies with the soul-less quality of the entire SiriusXM gestalt, which
requires its three thousand channels to carry songs strictly
on the basis of whether they share either a common date of issue (as on
the “40’s at 4,” “50’s at 5,” “60’s at 6” et al channels),
or a common target audience demographic.
 Among
the later, for example is the “Classic Vinyl” channel, which is
essentially a “Classic Rock” channel (“Classic Rock” being a Baby Boomer
euphemism for what our parents knew as “Oldies” radio) that plays the
WNEW-FM playlist from around 1968 to 1978. And nothing else.
 And
there is the “Classic Rewind” channel, which is another Oldies
channel that plays the WPLR-FM playlist from about 1979 to the late 1980s. And
nothing else.
 Then
there’s “The Bridge,” a Baby Boomer euphemism for “Easy Listening.”  It
plays Oldies of the James Taylor/Carole King/Jackson Browne vein.
 And
nothing else.
 Certainly
there are one or two such channels that manage to jump around between
genres (The Spectrum is worthwhile on that score).  But, in the main, each
SiriusXM channel is tightly focused on a specific, narrowly defined
demographic…sometimes scarily so.
 
Here we’re thinking of the “Metal” channel, which plays loosely
defined “songs” that consist of young men screaming their apocalyptic
guts out above what appears to be a single, head-banging, machine-gun-style
guitar-and-drumming musical track that never, ever changes.
 
You marvel at where these guys came from, what portion of the domestic
methamphetamine supply they consume, and how many serial killers might be
listening to “Metal” channel at the very same moment as you.
 
 If
Beavis and Butt-Head could afford a car, this would be their channel.
 Unfortunately,
no matter which channel you pick and who the purported “DJ” may be
(there are a lot of old-time, smokey-voiced, recognizable DJs on the various
Sirius Oldies channels) you’ll hear a sequence of songs that all sound
like a computerized random-number-generator picked ‘em.
 Listening
to the “60’s at 6” channel, for example, you may hear a great Beatles single
like “Hello, Goodbye” from 1967, followed by the wretchedly excessive
“MacAurther Park” from 1968, followed by an unrecognizable chart-topper from
1962 that nobody plays anymore because it wasn’t any good even in 1962.
 The
listener ends up flipping around from channel to channel and wondering why the
bandwidth-happy SiriusXM monopolists don’t just give each artist its own
channel, as they in fact do for Springsteen, Elvis and Sinatra.
 Those are channels you might expect to find, but there is, oddly enough,
no Bob Marley or Rolling Stones channel—and, head-scratcher of all
head-scratchers, no Beatles channel.
 In
fact, the absence of The Beatles from the SiriusXM digital bandwidth relative
to, say, the Eagles and Fleetwood Mac, is one the great mysteries of our age.
 After
all, the Beatles individually and collectively contributed 27of the Rolling
Stone Top 500 Songs of All-Time or 5.4% of those songs, yet they get nowhere
near 5.4% of the SiriusXM airplay, whether on “Classic
Vinyl,” “Classic Rewind,” “The Bridge,” “60’s on
6, ” “70’s on 7,” “The Spectrum” or any of the other
three thousand channels here.
 You
quite literally have as much chance of hearing “Snoopy and the Red Barron” on
SiriusXM as “Revolution.”
 So
why then is there a Jimmy Buffett channel (called
“Margaritaville,” of course)?
 Having
gotten all that off our chest, we can move on, since SiriusXM’s holiday
channels add no new material to our annual survey because most of the songs are
widely played everywhere else.
 Furthermore,
we’ve been asked to assemble a “Top Ten Worst” list of holiday songs
for this review.  The problem is there are just so many, as we’ll be
getting to shortly.  Rod Stewart’s somnambulant “My Favorite Things,”
which sounds like he’s reading the lyrics from a child’s book of verses, is
right up there, while Dan Fogelberg’s “Same Old Lang Syne” stands out in
any crowd of non-favorites.
 Easier,
then, to simply identify the All-Time, Number One, No-Question-About-It
NotMakingThisUp Worst Holiday Song of All Time, and let everyone else argue
about the remaining 9.
 It
is “The 12 Pains of Christmas.”
 This
so-called comedy song takeoff on “The 12 Days of Christmas,” a pleasant
English Christmas carol discovered by a U.S. schoolteacher from Milwaukee and
used by her in a Christmas pageant in 1910, is an easily forgettable
humorous novelty song that is neither novel or humorous, in any way.
 It
isn’t even fun writing about, so we won’t bother: we’ll simply
move on to something pleasant, which happens to be an entirely
different sort of humorous novelty song that is both novel and humorous,
and, therefore, well worth a mention here.
 We’re
talking about the wonderfully bizarre, catchy, Klezmer-style cover
of  “Must Be Santa,” from Bob Dylan’s 2009 Christmas
album, “Christmas in the Heart.”  (Yes, Bob Dylan made a Christmas
album.)
 The
music is fast and cheerful, and Dylan’s low, growly voice is almost
indistinguishable from Tom Waits.  (The truly bizarre music video is not
to be missed, watch it here.)  After you get over the initial
shock of hearing Bob Dylan singing what most Baby Boomer parents will recall
being a Raffi song, it becomes impossible to not enjoy.
 Another
glaring absence from our previous years’ commentary is neither novel or
humorous, and inconceivably does not appear to qualify for the SiriusXM
random-song-generator holiday song playlist despite being many-times more
worthwhile than most of the SiriusXM catalogue, whether holiday-themed or not.
 The
song is “2000 Miles” by the Pretenders, and it belongs on anybody’s Holiday Top
Ten.
 If
hearing Chrissie Hynde on that original song (she’s also recorded some good
Christmas covers, including one with the Blind Boys of Alabama) doesn’t get you
in a mellow holiday mood, nothing will.
 
Merry
Christmas, Happy Hanukkah and Good New Year to all.
—JM,
December 4, 2011 
 2010
Editor’s Note: 
Back for the third consecutive year by
popular demand, we’ll try to keep this year’s update brief—but don’t count on
it.
 For
starters, we’re going to plug a book: Keith Richards’ autobiography, “Life,”
which happens to be one of the best books ever written—and we don’t just mean
“Best in the Category of ‘Memoirs by Nearly-Dead Rock Stars’.”
 It
is a great book, period.
 The
story of how ‘Keef’ (as he signs sweet letters to his Mum while rampaging
across America), Brian and Mick developed the Rolling Stones’ sound, for
example, is worth the price alone (in short, they worked really hard;
but the full story is much better than that).
 Yet
there’s more—much more. Guitarists can soak up how Keith created his own guitar
sound; drummers will learn—if they didn’t already know—Charlie Watts’ high-hat
trick (and from whom he stole it); while songwriters had better prepare
themselves to be depressed at how Mick wrote songs (‘As fast as his hand
could write the words, he wrote the lyrics,
’ according to one session man
who watched him write “Brown Sugar”).
 And
that’s just the rock-and-roll stuff.
 The
sex-and-drugs stuff is also there, and the author lays it all out in his
unfettered, matter-of-fact, straightforward style, often with the first-person
help of friends and others-who-where-there (and presumably of sounder mind and
body than you-know-who: the drug and alcohol intake is truly staggering) who
write of their own experiences with the band.
 Okay,
you may say, but how exactly is Keith Richards’ autobiography relevant
to our annual review of holiday songs?
 Well,
while furtively reading snatches of ‘Life’ during a stop at the
local Borders (we expect to see the book under the Christmas tree sometime
around the 25th of this month, hint-hint), we happened to hear another musical
legend perform one of our favorite offbeat Christmas songs in the background,
and it occurred to your Editor that of all the bands out there that could have
done that same kind of interesting, worthwhile Christmas song, The Rolling
Stones probably top the list.
 What
with Keef’s bluesy undertones and Mick’s commercial-but-sinister instincts on
top, it would have certainly made this review, for better or worse. (Along
these lines, The Kinks’ cynical, working-class “Father Christmas” is one
of the all-time greats, and doesn’t get nearly enough air-time these days.)
 Now,
for the record, the offbeat Christmas song that triggered this excursion was “’Zat
You Santa Claus
?”—the Louis Armstrong and The Commanders version from the
1950’s. (The song was later covered, like everything else but the Raffi
catalogue, by Harry Connick, Jr.)
 Starting
out with jingle bells, blowing winds and a slide-whistle, you might initially
dismiss “’Zat You?” as a sadly commercial attempt by Armstrong to get in
on the Christmas song thing, except that his familiar, Mack-the-Knife-style
vocal comes over a terrific backbeat that turns it into what we’d nominate for
Funkiest Christmas Song Ever Recorded.
 It is a
delight to hear, and the fact that it is suddenly getting more air-time this
season is a step-up in quality for the entire category—or would be, if not for
the apparent installation of Wham!’s “Last Christmas” in the pantheon of
Christmas Classics.
 A
1980’s electro-synth Brit-Pop timepiece, “Last Christmas” combines a
somewhat catchy tune with lyrics that make a trapped listener attempt to open
the car door even at high speeds to get away:
Last
Christmas, I gave you my heart

But the
very next day you gave it away

This
year

To save
me from tears,

I gave it
to someone special
 Considering
the fact that the songwriter (Wham!’s gay front-man, George Michael) decided to
repeat that chorus six times, the full banality of the lyric eventually gives
way to incredulity: “Let me get this straight,” you begin to ask
yourself. “This year he’s giving his heart to ‘someone special’… so who’d
he give it to last year? The mailman?
”


 “Last
Christmas
” does have the distinction of being the biggest selling single in
UK history that never made it to Number 1. Furthermore, all royalties from the
single were donated to Ethiopian famine relief, the same cause which led to
creation of what turned out to be the actual Number 1 UK single that year, “Do
They Know It’s Christmas?
”


 “Do
They Know
…” is a song that has received some push from readers to receive
an honorable mention in these pages, and while it is certainly an interesting
timepiece, with much earnest participation from the likes of Sting, Bono and
even Sir Paul, it is not nearly as worthwhile as an album that seems just as
prevalent these days: A Charlie Brown Christmas by jazz
pianist Vince Guaraldi.


 How
a jazz pianist was hired to create the music for a TV special with cartoon
characters is this: the producer heard Guaraldi’s classic instrumental “Cast
Your Fate to the Wind
” on the radio while taking a cab across the Golden
Gate Bridge.
 One
thing led to another, and thanks to that odd bit of chance, future generations
will have the immense pleasure of hearing a timeless, unique work of art every
year around this time. (A second odd tidbit for our West Coast readers:
Guaraldi died while staying at the Red Cottage Inn, in Menlo Park—of a heart
attack, however, and not the usual, more gruesome fate of musicians who die in
hotels.)
 One
second-to-last note before we move on: we have been heavily lobbied by certain,
er, close relations to include Mariah Carey’s “All I Want For Christmas is
You
” as a worthwhile holiday song—despite our previously expressed
misgivings about her contribution to the genre (see below).


 And
we have to admit, her “All I Want…” leaves behind the incessant vocal
pyrotechnics that made some of her other Christmas covers (“Oh Holy Night,”
for example) unbearable, at least to our ears.
 In
this case she seems to trust the song to take care of itself, which it does in
fine, driving, upbeat style. Now, as Your Editor previously hinted, all he wants
for Christmas is Keef’s book. And it had better be there, if, as previously
noted, you get our drift.
 Finally,
and speaking of autobiographies, we happened to read Andy Williams’ own book
this past year and must report that our reference to Williams below was overly
harsh. For one thing, his book is as honest as Keef’s; for another, as a singer
not necessarily born with the vocal equipment of, say, Mariah Carey, the man
worked at his craft and succeeded mightily where many others failed.
 Which,
we might add, is, after all, the hope of this season.

And so,
we wish for a Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah and Good New Year to all.
JM,
December 13, 2010



2009
Editor’s Note: 

Back by popular demand, what follows is our
year-end sampling of the Christmas songs playing incessantly on a radio station
near you, and it demands from your editor only a few updates this holiday
season.
 For
starters, we have not heard the dreaded duet of Jessica Simpson and Nick Lachey
singing “Baby, It’s Cold Outside” thus far in 2009, and for this we are most
grateful.
 Indeed,
if it turns out that their recording has been confiscated by Government
Authorities for use as an alternative to lethal injections, we’ll consider
ourselves a positive force for society.
 On
the other hand, we are sorry to report an offset to that cheery development, in
the form of a surge in playing time for Barry Manilow’s chirpy imitation of the
classic Bing Crosby/Andrew Sisters version of “Jingle Bells.”
 For
the record, “Jingle Bells” was written in 1857…for Thanksgiving, not for
Christmas. And it’s hard to imagine making a better version than that recorded
by Bing and the three Andrew Sisters 86 years later.
 But
Manilow, it seems, didn’t bother to try.

 Instead, Barry and his back-up
group, called Expos, simply copied Bing’s recording, right down to that stutter
in the Andrews Sisters’ unique, roller-coaster vocals on the choruses, as well
as Bing’s breezy, improvised, “oh we’re gonna have a lotta fun” throwaway line
on the last chorus.
 Sharp-eared
readers might say, “Well, so what else would you expect from a guy who sang ‘I
Write the Songs
’…which was in fact written by somebody else?”


 We
can’t argue with that, but we will point out another annoyance this year: the
enlarged presence of Rod Stewart in the Christmas play-lists.
 Don’t
get us wrong: we like Rod Stewart—at least, the Rod Stewart who gave the world
what Your Editor still considers the best coming-of-age song ever written and
recorded: “Every Picture Tells a Story.”
 It’s
the Rod Stewart who gave us “Do Ya Think I’m Sexy?” we’re less crazy
about.  So too the Rod who chose to cover “My Favorite Things” (for the
definitive version of that classic, see: ‘Bennett, Tony’) and “Baby It’s Cold
Outside” with Dolly Parton (for an only slightly more offensive version of this
one, see: ‘Simpson, Jessica’ and ‘Lachey, Nick’).
 As
an antidote to Rod, we suggest several doses of Jack Johnson’s sly, understated
“Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer,” which seems to be gaining recognition, and
anything by James Taylor—especially his darkly melancholic “Have Yourself a
Merry Little Christmas.”
 Of
all the singers who recorded versions of this last—and Sinatra’s might be the
best—it is Taylor, a former junkie, who probably expresses more of the intended
spirit of this disarmingly titled song.
 After
all, the original lyric ended not with the upbeat “Have yourself a merry little
Christmas, let your heart be light/Next year all our troubles will be out of
sight,” but with this:


 “Have
yourself a merry little Christmas, it may be your last/Next year we may all be
living in the past.”


 No,
we are not making that up.  The good news is it should keep Barry Manilow
from be covering it any time soon.


JM—December
19, 2009



Wednesday,
December 24, 2008


Shazam!
From the Boss to the King to John & Paul (But Not George or Ringo), Not
to Mention Jessica & Nick
 Like
everyone else out there, we’ve been hearing Christmas songs since the day our
local radio station switched to holiday music sometime around, oh, July 4th, it
feels like.
 And
while it may just be a symptom of our own aging, the 24/7 holiday music
programming appears to have stretched the song quality pool from what once
seemed Olympic-deep to, nowadays, more of a wading pool-depth.
 What
we recall in our youth to be a handful of mostly good, listenable songs—Nat
King Cole’s incomparable cover of “The Christmas Song” (written by an
insufferable bore: more on that later); Bing’s mellow, smoky, “White
Christmas”; and even Brenda Lee’s country-tinged “Rockin’ Around the Christmas
Tree” (recorded when she was 13: try to get your mind around that)—played over
and over a few days a year…has evolved into a thousand mediocre-at-best covers
played non-stop for months on end.
 Does
anybody else out there wonder why Elvis bothered mumbling his way through “Here
Comes Santa Claus”? 

It actually sounds like Elvis doing a parody of
Elvis—as if he can’t wait to get the thing over with. Fortunately The King does
get it over with, in just 1 minute, 54 seconds.
 Along
with that and all the other covers, there are, occasionally, the odd original
Christmas songs—the oddest of all surely being Dan Fogelburg’s “Same Old Lang
Syne.”
 You’ve
heard it: the singer meets his old lover in a grocery store, she drops her
purse, they laugh, they cry, they get drunk and realize their lives have been a
waste…and, oh, the snow turns to rain.
 So
how, exactly, did that become a Christmas song?
 Then
there’s ex-Beatle Paul McCartney’s “Wonderful Christmastime,” which combines an
annoyingly catchy beat with dreadful lyrics, something McCartney often did when
John Lennon wasn’t around.

 (After all, it was Lennon who replaced McCartney’s
banal, teeny-boppish opening line for “I Saw Her Standing There”—“She was just
seventeen/Never been a beauty queen” is what McCartney originally wrote—with
the more suggestive “She was just seventeen/You know what I mean,” thereby
turning a mediocre time-piece into a classic.)
 But
Lennon was not around to save “Wonderful Christmastime” even though McCartney
actually recorded this relatively new Christmas standard nearly thirty years
ago, before Lennon was shot.
 It
rightfully lay dormant until the advent of All-Christmas-All-The-Time
programming a couple of years ago. Fortunately, by way of offset, Lennon’s own
downbeat but enormously catchy “Happy Xmas (War is Over)” is played about as
frequently as “Wonderful Christmastime.”
 Who
but John Lennon would start a Christmas song: “And so this is Christmas/And
what have you done…”?  Of course, who but Paul McCartney would start a
Christmas song, “The moon is right/The spirit’s up?”
 If
anything explains the Beatles’ breakup better than these two songs, we haven’t
heard it.
 Now,
we don’t normally pay much attention to Christmas songs. If it isn’t one of the
aforementioned, or an old standard sung by Nat, Bing, Frank, Tony, Ella and a
few others, we’d be clueless.
 But
thanks to a remarkable new technology, we here at NotMakingThisUp suddenly
found ourselves able to distinguish, for example, which blandly
indistinguishable female voice sings which blandly indistinguishable version of
“O Holy Night”—Kelly Clarkson, Celine Dion, or Mariah Carey—without any effort
at all.
 The
technology is Shazam—an iPhone application that might possibly have received
the greatest amount of buzz for the least amount of apparent usefulness since
cameras on cell phones first came out.
 For
readers who haven’t seen the ads or heard about Shazam’s wonders from a
breathless sub-25 year old, Shazam software lets you point your iPhone towards
any source of recorded music, like a car radio, the speaker in a Starbucks, or
even the jukebox in a bar—and learn what song is playing.
 Shazam
does this by recording a selection of the music and analyzing the data. It then
displays the name of the song, the artist, the album, as well as lyrics, a band
biography and other doodads right there on the iPhone.
 Now,
you may well ask, what possible use could there be for identifying a song
playing in a bar?
 And
unless you’re a music critic or a song-obsessed sub-25 year old, we’re still
not sure.
 But
we can say that Shazam is pretty cool. In the course of testing it on a batch
of Christmas songs—playing on a standard, nothing-special, low-fi kitchen
radio—heard from across the room, without making the least effort to get the
iPhone close to the source of the music, Shazam figured out every song but one
(a nondescript version of a nondescript song that it never could get) without a
hitch.
 And,
as a result, we can now report the following:
 1)
It is astounding how many Christmas songs are out there nowadays, most of them
not worth identifying, Shazam or no Shazam;


 2)
All Christmas covers recorded in the last 10 years sound pretty much alike, as
if they all use the same backing track, and thus require something like Shazam
to distinguish one from the other;


 3)
Nobody has yet done a cover version of Dan Fogelburg’s “Same Old Lang Syne,”
which may be the truest sign of Hope in the holiday season;
 4)
None of this matters because Mariah Carey screwed up the entire holiday song
thing, anyway.


 Now,
why, you may ask, would we pick on Mariah Carey, as opposed to, say, someone
who can’t actually sing?
 Well,
her “O Holy Night” happened to be the first song in our mini-marathon, and it
really does seem to have turned Christmas song interpretation into a kind of
vocal competitive gymnastics aimed strictly at showing off how much of the
singer’s five-octave vocal range can be used, not merely within this one
particular song, but within each measure of the song.
 In
fact Mariah’s voice jumps around so much it sounds like somebody in the studio
is tickling her while she’s singing.
 More
sedate than Mariah, and possibly less harmful to the general category, The
Carpenters’ version of “(There’s No Place Like) Home for the Holidays” comes on
next, and it makes you think you’re listening to an Amtrak commercial rather
than a Christmas song (“From Atlantic to Pacific/Gee, the traffic is
terrific!”), so innocuous and manufactured it sounds.
 Johnny
Mathis is similarly harmless, although his oddly eunuch-like voice can give you
the creeps, if you really think about it. Mercifully, his version of “It’s
Beginning to Look a Lot Like Christmas” is short enough (2:16) that you don’t
think about it for long.
 Now,
without Shazam we never would have known the precise time duration of that
song.
 On
the other hand, we would we never have been able to identify the perpetrators
of what may be the single greatest travesty of the holiday season—Jessica
Simpson and Nick Lachey, singing “Baby it’s Cold Outside.”


 “Singing”
is actually too strong a word for what they do. Simpson’s voice barely rises
above a whisper, and you cringe when she reaches for a note, although she does
manage to hit the last, sustained “outside,” no doubt thanks to the magic of
electronics.
 Thus
the major downside of Shazam might be that it can promote distinctly
anti-social behavior: having correctly identified who was responsible for this
blight on holiday radio music, the listener might decide that if they ever ran
across the pair in his or her car while singing along with the radio too loudly
to notice, they wouldn’t stop to identify the bodies.
 Fortunately,
the bad taste left by that so-called duet is washed away when Nat King Cole’s
“The Christmas Song” comes on next.
 Thanks
to Shazam, we learn that this is actually the fourth version
Nat recorded. The man worked at his craft, and it shows. This is the best
version of the song on record, by anyone, and probably one of the two or three
best Christmas songs out there, period.
 The
second those strings sweetly announce the tune, you relax, and by the time
Cole’s smoky, gorgeous voice begins to sing, you’re in a distinctly Christmas
mood like no other recording ever creates.
 (Unfortunately,
the song’s actual writer, Mel Tormé, had the personality of a man perpetually
seething for not getting proper recognition for having written one of the most
popular Christmas songs of all time. We did not learn this from Shazam: we once
saw Tormé perform at a small lounge, during which he managed to mention that
he, not Nat King Cole, wrote “The Christmas Song”—as if this common
misperception was still on everybody’s mind 35 years later. When that news
flash did not seem to make the appropriate impression on the audience, he later
broke off singing to chew out a less-than-attentive audience member, completely
destroying the mood for the rest of the set.)
 Like
that long-ago performance by the “Velvet Fog,” the pleasant sensation
left behind by Cole’s “Christmas Song” is quickly soured, this time by a male
singer performing “Let it Snow, Let it Snow, Let it Snow” in the manner of
Harry Connick, Jr. doing a second-rate version of Sinatra.
 Who
is this guy, we wonder?
 Shazam
tells us it’s Michael Bublé. We are pondering how such a vocal lightweight
became such a sensation in recent years—the answer must surely be electronics,
because his voice, very distinctly at times, sounds like it has been
synthesized—when John Lennon’s “Happy Xmas” comes on.
 It’s
a great song, demonstrating as it does Lennon’s advice to David Bowie on how to
write a song: “Say what you mean, make it rhyme and give it a backbeat.” The
fact that Lennon had the best voice in rock and roll also helps.
 Unfortunately,
his wife had the worst voice in rock and roll, and a brief downer it is when
Yoko comes in on the chorus like a banshee. (Fortunately she is quickly drowned
out by the children’s chorus from the Harlem Community Choir.)
 The
other songs in our Shazam song-identification session are, we fear, too many to
relate.
Sinatra,
of course; Kelly Clarkson, an American Idol winner who essentially does a pale
Mariah Carey impersonation; Blandy—er, Andy Williams; and one of the best: Tony
Bennett.
 Then
there’s Willie Nelson, who has a terrific, understated way of doing any song he
wants—but sounds completely out of place singing “Frosty the Snowman.” One
wonders exactly what kind of white powder Willie was thinking about while he
was recording this, if you get our drift.
 Oh,
and there’s Coldplay’s “Have Yourself a Merry Little Christmas,” which pairs
the sweetest piano with the worst voice in any single Christmas song we heard;
Amy Grant, a kind of female Andy Williams; the Ronettes, who are genuinely
terrific—a great beat, no nonsense, and Ronnie singing her heart out with that
New York accent; and then Mariah again, this time doing “Silent Night” with
that same roller-coaster vocal gargling.
 Gene
Autry’s all-too-popular version of “Here Comes Santa Claus” would be bearable
except that he pronounces it “Santee Closs,” which is unfortunate in a song in
which that word appears like 274 times. ‘N Sync is likewise unbearable doing “O
Holy Night” a cappella, with harmonies the Brits would call cringe-making, and
Mariah-type warbling to boot.
 Hall
& Oates’s “Jingle Bell Rock” is too easy to confuse with the other
versions of “Jingle Bell Rock”—thank you, Shazam, for clearing that up—while
Martina McBride manages to sound eerily like Barbra Streisand imitating Linda
Ronstadt singing “Have Yourself a Merry Little Christmas.”
 Winding
things down is Dan Fogelburg’s aforementioned “Same Old Lang Syne,” and here we
need to vent a little: something about the way he sings “liquor store”—he
pronounces it “leeker store”—never fails to provoke powerful radio-smashing
adrenalin surges.
 Fortunately,
we suppress those urges today, because the Shazam experiment concludes with one
of the best Christmas songs ever recorded. Better than Bing, and maybe even
better than Nat, depending on your mood.
 It’s
Bruce Springsteen. The Boss. Doing “Santa Claus is Comin’ to Town”…
live.
 Yes,
this song was recorded live, and despite its age (more than 25 years old), the
thing still jumps out of the radio and grabs you.
 Now,
as Shazam informs us, this particular recording was actually the B-side of a
single release called “My Hometown.” (Back in the day, kids, “singles” came
with two songs, one on each side of a record: the “A” side was intended to be
the hit song; the “B” side was, until the Beatles came along, for throwaway
stuff.)
 Fortunately
nobody threw this one away.
 Springsteen
begins the familiar song with some audience patter and actual jingle bells;
then he starts to sing and the band comes to life. Things move along smoothly
through the verse and chorus…until ace drummer Max Weinberg kicks it into
high gear and the band roars into a fast shuffle that takes the thing into a
different realm altogether.
 Feeding
off the audience, The Boss sings so hard his voice slightly breaks at times.
Then he quiets down before roaring back into a tear-the-roof-off chorus,
sometimes dropping words and laughing as he goes.
 This
is real music—recorded in 1975 during a concert at the C.W. Post College—with
no retakes, no production effects, and no electronic vocal repairs, either.
 Try
doing that some time, Jessica and Nick.
 Actually,
come to think of it, please don’t.
Merry
Christmas, Happy Hanukkah and a Good New Year to all.
Jeff
Matthews

Author
“Secrets in Plain Sight: Business and Investing Secrets of Warren Buffett”
(eBooks
on Investing, 2014)    Available now at Amazon.com

© 2015 NotMakingThisUp, LLC


Categories
Uncategorized

Berkshire Hathaway: Bad Deals All Over

 In case you thought Berkshire Hathaway was
involved in only one bad deal—the $36 billion all-cash takeover of cyclical,
airline-supplying Precision Castparts for 20-times what may (or may not) turn
out to be peak-cycle earnings—well, there’s another deal Berkshire is involved
in, indirectly, that is not looking great for the acquiring company and its
shareholders: M&T Bank’s $5.4 billion all-stock acquisition of Hudson City
Bancorp.
 Berkshire Hathaway has owned shares of M&T
for years, maybe decades, and for good reason: run by down-to-earth Bob
Wilmers, whose annual shareholder letter is required reading for anyone in this
business, M&T is one of the few banks with $50 billion or more in assets
that made it through the financial crisis without losing a dime, or needing a
bailout, or both, thanks entirely due to the sober culture of the place.
 And while your editor owns M&T shares for
exactly the same reason as Berkshire Hathaway, the acquisition of Hudson City
is looking more like a pig in a poke than the tarnished gem it appeared to be
the day the deal was announced way back in August 2012.
 The Feds, you see, have yet to approve the
deal, for reasons supposedly relating to concerns about M&T’s anti-money-laundering capabilities.   And
while M&T has been spending heaps of money to fix whatever accounted for
the Fed’s concerns, the deal approval kept getting deferred.
 Meantime, M&T’s stock—and the value of the
shares it agreed to pay for Hudson—kept climbing and now stands 30% above the initial
$7.56 value per Hudson share to $10.20 today. 
With 530 million Hudson shares outstanding, that means the initial $4 billion
price tag has jumped to over $5.3 billion.
 Worse, given the long-deferred approval,
Hudson has been shrinking.   Who, after
all, wants to work with a bank that may or may not be around—depending on the
Feds—in a year or two or three?   And who
wants to work for that bank?
 No surprise, then, that employment at Hudson
has shrunk from over 1,600 to 1,466 at last count, while the loan book has likewise
been shrinking—from $27 billion or so around the time of the announcement to
around $20 billion today.  Deposits have also
skedaddled: there were $18 billion at last count, down from $23 billion back
when. 
 And despite the 30% jump in the value of the
transaction, shareholder equity has barely budged: $4.8 billion, up from $4.7
billion.   So what M&T was once
paying below book value for it is now paying a pretty fancy multiple of book,
in bank terms.
 Nevertheless, Wall Street’s Finest continue to
cheerlead the transaction.  When Hudson
yesterday announced a $30 million settlement with the Feds (a different branch
of the Feds from the ones who will decide on the deal’s fate shortly) over
allegations of “redlining,” you would have thought Hudson had instead announced
that it had discovered that the company’s Paramus headquarters was sitting on a
giant shale gas field with a pipeline
already connected to Con Edison
ready to supply New York City’s energy needs
for the next millennium
: M&T’s stock popped and research reports
declared that this was just the sign we needed that the deal would shortly be
approved.
 And maybe it will be.  
 But as an M&T shareholder, I’d just as
soon not be paying 30% more for so much less.
Jeff Matthews

Author
“Secrets in Plain Sight: Business and Investing Secrets of Warren Buffett”
(eBooks
on Investing, 2015)    Available now at Amazon.com
© 2015
NotMakingThisUp, LLC



The content contained in this blog represents only
the opinions of Mr. Matthews.
  Mr.
Matthews also acts as an advisor and clients advised by Mr. Matthews may hold
either long or short positions in securities of various companies discussed in
the blog based upon Mr. Matthews’ recommendations. This commentary in no way
constitutes investment advice, and should never be relied on in making an
investment decision, ever. Also, this blog is not a solicitation of business by
Mr. Matthews: all inquiries will be ignored. The content herein is intended
solely for the entertainment of the reader, and the author.