Buy Hillary?

McCain Closes Gap on Obama In Poll as Convention Looms

That’s today’s headline and we are not making it up.

Readers may recall that back in late June, we here at NotMakingThisUp suggested that Obama’s position in the Intrade prediction market—65.3%—would not last, and that while we never recommend stocks on these pages, we’d be willing to short Obama at that level.

As of today, we could cover that short at 58.9%. Of course, this is all theoretical: we have put down no money, nor are we suggesting anybody else do so either. Still, it feels too early to cover an Obama short. Way too early.

After all, Obama isn’t yet the official Democratic nominee, and there’s a convention coming up. And anybody counting out the Clintons before the votes are counted in Denver is, we think, making a mistake.

Conspiracy theorists we are not, but we do wonder why, all of a sudden, Obama-backer John Edwards’ affair is front-page news? Hasn’t that been around for a while?

And today’s headline doesn’t look too perky for the rising star from Illinois: we have war, we have recession, we have inflation, we have icecaps melting and we have the biggest housing slump in a generation…and the best the presumed Democratic nominee can do is what today’s Wall Street Journal calls “a statistical dead heat” with his Republican opponent?

With McCain “closing the gap” now, and Edwards out of the picture, and Obama graciously—and naively—allowing Hillary’s name to be placed in nomination at the convention for a roll-call vote, we wouldn’t be shocked to see the Democratic convention turn into a free-for-all.

Hillary-as-nominee is offered at 3.4 on Intrade. That should be zero by the end of next week. But then again, it could be 100.

Stranger things have happened.

Jeff Matthews
I Am Not Making This Up

© 2008 NotMakingThisUp, LLC

The content contained in this blog represents the opinions of Mr. Matthews.
Mr. Matthews also acts as an advisor and clients advised by Mr. Matthews may hold either long or short positions in securities of various companies discussed in the blog based upon Mr. Matthews’ recommendations. This commentary in no way constitutes investment advice. It should never be relied on in making an investment decision, ever. Nor are these comments meant to be a solicitation of business in any way: such inquiries will not be responded to. This content is intended solely for the entertainment of the reader, and the author.